DeMarco Murray

Time to look back at who stood out among the 2011 rookie class. While no one rushed for 1,000 yards, both DeMarco Murray and Roy Helu had over 1,000 yards from scrimmage.

DeMarco Murray could no doubt have surpassed 1,000 yards rushing if he had seen more playing time. He saw limited action the first five games, but with Felix Jones injured he stepped up big time big time in game six with 253 rushing yards. He continued to produce until going on injured reserve December 13 and missing the last three games of the season.

Speaking of injuries, we never got to see what Mikel LeShoure and Ryan Williams were capable of in a game day situation as both unfortunately went on injured reserve in the pre-season.

There are some who didn’t get a chance to shine yet, either due to be buried on the depth chart or just simply being on a bad team. Jamie Harper had a big pre-season, but didn’t see much action in the regular season as he was third fiddle on the Titans depth chart. Stevan Ridley didn’t see much action the first 13 games, but then came on to show a glimpse of why Bill Belichick drafted him in the third round. Roy Helu had a light workload his first ten games, then stepped up with three straight 100 yard games. Kendall Hunter saw limited action backing up Frank Gore. Evan Royster didn’t see action until the final six games of the season and finished the season with two consecutive 100 yard games. Several others found themselves in similar situations.

For our statistical analysis, the players are ranked by rushing yards.

DeMarco Murray – 897 yds, 2 TD’s, 26 rec for 183 yds

Roy Helu – 640 yds, 2 TD’s, 49 rec for 379 yds & 1TD

Daniel Thomas – 581 yds, 0 TD’s, 12 rec for 72 yds & 1 TD

Mark Ingram – 474 yds, 5 TD’s, 11 rec for 46 yds

Kendall Hunter – 473 yds, 2 TD’s, 16 rec for 195 yds

Stevan Ridley – 441 yds, 1 TD, 3 rec for 13 yds

Delone Carter – 377 yds, 2 TD’s, 5 rec for 18 yds

Evan Royster – 328 yds, 0TD’s 10 rec for 76 yds

Jacquizz Rodgers – 205 yds, 1 TD, 21 rec for 188 yds & 1 TD

Dion Lewis – 102 yds, 1 TD, 1 rec for minus 3 yds

Injured backs Mikel LeShoure & Ryan Williams

Brian Cushing & the Texans make the playoffs

The regular season is over  and the Texans are in the playoffs for the first time. Time to look back at the season’s top fantasy performers. Stats used are fairly standard Yahoo scoring with 0.5 PPR (points per reception).

Drew Brees

QB’s

Drew Brees surpassed Dan Marino with 5,476 yards passing – Tom Brady & Matthew Stafford also passed for more than 5,000 yards.

Brees, Rodgers, Stafford & Brady all had 40+ touchdowns passing & unning.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Josh Freeman, Philip Rivers and Rex Grossman all had 20+ interceptions – a good thing to keep in mind if your league penalizes for INT’s.

Cam Newton, Tim Tebow and Michael Vick all rushed for more than 500 yards – no one else had over 300 yards.

Notable:

Drew Brees – 5,476 yds, 46 TD’s, 14 INT, 86 yds rushing & 1 TD

Aaron Rodgers – 4,643 yds, 45 TD’s, 6 INT, 257 yds rushing & 3 TD’s

Cam Newton – 4,051 yds, 21 TD’s, 17 INT, 706 yds rushing & 14 TD’s

Tom Brady – 5,235 yds, 39 TD’s, 12 INT, 109 yds rushing & 3 TD’s

Matthew Stafford – 5,038 yds, 39 TD’s, 16 INT, 78 yds rushing

Eli Manning – 4,933 yds, 29 TD’s, 16 INT, 15 yds rushing & 1 TD

Tony Romo – 4,184 yds, 31 TD’s, 10 INT, 46 yds rushing & 1 TD

Matt Ryan – 4,177 yds, 29 TD’s, 12 INT, 84 yds rushing & 2 TD’s

Philip Rivers – 4,624 yds, 27 TD’s, 20 INT, 36 yds rushing & 1 TD

Mark Sanchez – 3,474 yds, 26 TD’s, 18 INT, 103 yds rushing & 6 TD’s

Ray Rice

RB’s

15 backs had 1,000+ yards rushing.

8 backs had 50+ receptions.

3 backs had 600+ receiving yards.

Only Darren Sproles had more than 5 receiving touchdowns (he had 5).

Notable:

Ray Rice – 1,364 yds, 12 TD’s, 76 rec for 704 yds & 3 TD’s, plus one passing TD

LeSean McCoy – 1,309 yds, 17 TD’s, 48 rec for 315 yds & 3 TD’s

Maurice Jones-Drew – 1,606 yds, 8 TD’s, 43 rec for 374 yds & 3 TD’s

Arian Foster – 1,224 yds, 10 TD’s, 53 rec for 617 yds & 2 TD’s

Marshawn Lynch – 1,204 yds, 12 TD’s, 28 rec for 212 yds & 1 TD

Darren Sproles – 603 yds, 2 TD’s, 86 rec for 710 yds & 7 TD’s

Michael Turner – 1,340 yds, 11 TD’s, 17 rec for 168 yds

Ryan Mathews – 1,091 yds, 6 TD’s, 50 rec for 455 yds

Michael Bush – 977 yds, 7 TD’s, 37 rec for 418 yds & 1 TD

Steven Jackson – 1,145 yds, 5 TD’s, 42 rec for 333 yds & 1 TD

Calvin Johnson

WR’s

3 receivers had 90+ receptions

17 receivers had 1,000+ receiving yards

3 receivers had 10+ touchdowns and close behind were 5 receivers with 9 touchdowns.

Notable:

Calvin Johnson – 96 rec, 1,681 yds, 16 TD’s, 11 yds rushing

Wes Welker – 122 rec, 1,569 yds, 9 TD’s, 30 yds rushing

Jordy Nelson – 68 rec, 1,263 yds, 15 TD’s

Victor Cruz – 82 rec, 1,536 yds, 9 TD’s, 3 yds rushing

Larry Fitzgerald – 80 rec, 1,411 yds, 8 TD’s

Roddy White – 100 rec, 1,296 yds, 8 TD’s

Steve Smith (CAR) – 79 rec, 1,394 yds, 7 TDs, 56 yds rushing

Percy Harvin – 87 rec, 967 yds, 6 TD’s, 345 yds rushing & 2 TD’s

Mike Wallace – 72 rec, 1,193 yds, 8 TD’s, 57 yds rushing

Marques Colston – 80 rec, 1,143 yds, 8 TD’s

Rob Gronkowski

TE’s

7 players had 75+ receptions.

2 players had 1,000+ receiving yards and 5 more had 800+ receiving yards.

2 players had 10+ touchdowns.

If you combine the tight ends with the wide receivers, Rob Gronkowski is second only to Calvin Johnson – if you toss in running backs too, only Rice & McCoy beat Gronkowski.

Notable:

Rob Gronkowski – 90 rec, 1,327 yds, 17 TD’s, 2 yds rushing & 1 TD

Jimmy Graham – 99 rec, 1,310 yds, 11 TD’s

Aaron Hernandez – 79 rec, 910 yds, 7 TDs, 45 yds rushing

Tony Gonzalez – 80 rec, 875 yds, 7 TD’s

Jason Witten – 79 rec, 942 yds, 5 TD’s

Jermichael Finley – 55 rec, 767 yds, 8 TD’s

Antonio Gates – 64 rec, 778 yds, 7 TD’s

Brandon Pettigrew – 83 rec, 777 yds, 5 TD’s

David Akers

K’s

7 kickers had 6+ field goals of 50+ yards.

2 kickers had field goals of 60+ yards

Tops: David Akers, John Kasay, Stephen Gostkowski, Sebastian Janikowski, Dan Bailey, Neil Rackers, Mason Crosby, Mike Nugent.

49ers Defense

D/ST’s

5 teams allowed less 300+ points against

5 teams had 45+ sacks

9 teams had 20+ interceptions

6 teams 12+ fumble recoveries

5 teams had 5+ touchdowns

4 teams had 1,700+ return yards

2 teams had 3+ return touchdowns

Tops: 49ers, Bears, Jets, Seahawks, Ravens, Lions, Cardinals, Packers

Bottom-feeders: Colts, Panthers, Bucs, Falcons, Chargers, Raiders, Cowboys, Rams, Saints, Redskins.

While I think I learned quite a few things, including a new way to focus on football games, my overall sense of the project is of mild failure. My original thesis was that offensive lines required cohesiveness, coaching, and stability to be effective, and that has not always been correct. There are many excellent players who are offensive line dependent, such as Tom Brady and Michael Turner. These players would be merely average without a powerful offensive line protecting or opening holes for them. There are other players, however, who can succeed without a strong offensive line. Michael Vick comes to mind, but Ben Roethlisberger is also at his best when a play breaks down. I am not even sure how Vick would react to a powerful offensive line that gave him too much time to scan the defense. Perhaps he would be able to stay healthy, but part of his game is running around like a madman. For that, he is going to get hit. Running backs are almost all dependent on their offensive line, but a player like Adrian Peterson or Ray Rice can still succeed without their line pancaking the defense. It will be interesting to see what Arian Foster can do if he decides to leave Houston.

One of the main problems I have had in recent weeks is that I can’t really differentiate a good offensive line from a mediocre one. The lineman’s job seems relatively simply: stay between the defender and the player you are trying to protect. More often than not, even the worst offensive lineman succeeds. It would seem to me that the worst offensive lineman not only miss a few blocks but cause their team harm with penalties. Somewhat surprisingly, these numbers do not seem to be available on the Internet (broken down by position or by player), which means that the statistical analysis movement has not made it to the hogs up front.

Which brings me to another problem: the fantasy footballizaton of football. I have no problems with fantasy football in general. In fact, I enjoy it, but I think the focus on touchdowns takes away from the actual game of football. I am not talking about football players being annoyed when overzealous fans bother them about their teams (the players should be happy that people care), but the fact that fantasy football skews analysis toward helping people win their leagues rather than trying to figure out what is going on out there. The work that offensive lines do is hard to quantify and it is hard to get a good grip on what one offensive lineman means to their entire line. Sometimes it takes a game or two for a line to adjust to a new offensive lineman, but the effects are hardly catastrophic when Dan Koppen is replaced by Dan Connelly.

I suppose if I were really that interested, I would have taken time to find some experts and pick their brains. I figured I’d be able to be able to watch the games and determine patterns. I better understand how pass blocking works. The center is almost always the weakest link of the offensive line and usually gets help from one of the guards. Tackles have to be agile enough to push away speed rushers, and strong enough to hold up their end of the of the line. Because of these required skills, top tackles are hard to find, while interior linemen – even the best of the best – do not have to be drafted in the early rounds.

I also learned – somewhat to my dismay – why the passing attack has forged ahead of the ground game. It is a simple return on investment. For a running play to get big yards, the defense has to make a mistake. If the defense plays the run perfectly, the gain might be five yards. On passing plays, a defense can be aligned correctly and the offense can still gain enough yards to get a first down. This goes against my ground-attack-and-defense heart, but it is the state of the game. It is also the reason why quarterback has become the most important commodity (something that probably doesn’t need to be said).

All in all, the offensive line is just one small part of what makes football interesting. I hope someone else (someone better) forges ahead with what I may have started. For now, the Big Picture is closed.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

Kahlil Bell

Season Statistics: 79/337/0 and 19/133/1

Place on Team Depth Chart: RB2

So this stash is more of a why not then a you should do this. The Chicago Bears are an odd organization and the bottom line is that it is really very possible that they let Matt Forte walk away. If Chicago takes the cheap guy route I can see them going with Khalil Bell and Marion Barber and drafting a rookie as well. Chicago is not known for spending money on offensive talent. Believe me, I don’ think they are overly bright to let Forte walk but strange things happen in the NFL.

So, what do we get if we buy into Khalil Bell. You will be getting a solid football player with enough explosion and talent that he could carry a full load of a season but he would more than likely wind up as a middle of the pack guy in the statistics areas, essentially a RB2. He can block, catch and runs decent enough routes to stay on the field for 3 downs. With every chance Bell has had he has performed well and sometimes very well as shown in his week 16 start that yielded 121 yards on 23 carries as well as 4 catches for 38 yards. If he had found the endzone it would have been a stellar week for the unheralded Running Back.

What I do know is that Bell will be back in Chicago likely on a cheap one year deal. Martz has a huge ego and can and will but heads with anyone for apparently any kind of reason. What I don’t know is if Forte will be back. Does he deserve a mega deal putting him in the range of a top 10 Running Back, yes, he probably does. Is Chicago going to cough up mega dough for what was really just the 15th, 10th, 18th and 4th best fantasy back over the last 4 years. I am giving it about a 40% chance that they will. Don’t be shocked to see Forte running for a different team in 2012. Don’t get caught without a cheap stash of Khalil Bell on your roster. I missed my opportunity as he was available in my league, if you can still add him, you might as well see how this soon to be soap opera plays out.

Most leagues have their championship games in week 16, but some league championships will be decided this weekend, so if you are reading this, congrats on making it all the way to the championship game! Time to set your lineups for week 17. Here we have my Top 36 Linebackers, Defensive Backs, and Defensive Linemen for week 17. Good luck!

Happy New Year to everyone and their families!

Cheatsheet based on IDP Manor Scoring:

Tackles: 1 Point Each
Assists: .5 Points Each
Fumbles Forced: 2 points Each
Fumbles Recovered: 2 points Each
Interceptions: 4 Points Each
Sacks: 4 Points Each
Safety: 4 Points Each
TD: 6 Points Each
Passes Defensed: 1 Point Each

LINEBACKERS

1. London Fletcher – WAS at PHI (Injury Risk: Ankle, Probable for Week 17)
2. Derrick Johnson – KC at DEN
3. James Laurinaitis – STL vs SF
4. Ray Lewis – BAL at CIN
5. D’Qwell Jackson – CLE vs PIT
6. Colin McCarthy (R) – TEN at HOU
7. NaVorro Bowman – SF at STL
8. Pat Angerer – IND at JAX
9. Jerod Mayo – NE vs BUF
10. Daryl Washington – ARI vs SEA
11. Desmond Bishop – GB vs DET
12. Nick Barnett – BUF at NE
13. Chad Greenway – MIN vs CHI
14. Karlos Dansby – MIA vs NYJ (Not Injury Related: Probable for Week 17)
15. Sean Lee – DAL at NYG (Injury Risk: Wrist & Illness, Questionable for Week 17)
16. Brian Urlacher – CHI at MIN (Injury Risk: Knee, Questionable for Week 17)
17. Curtis Lofton – ATL vs TB (Injury Risk: Ankle, Probable for Week 17)
18. D.J. Williams – DEN vs KC
19. James Anderson – CAR at NO
20. Paul Posluszny – JAX vs IND
21. David Hawthorne – SEA at ARI (Injury Risk: Knee, Probable for Week 17)
22. DeMarcus Ware – DAL at NYG (Injury Risk: Neck, Probable for Week 17)
23. Perry Riley – WAS at PHI
24. Brian Cushing – HOU vs TEN
25. Sean Weatherspoon – ATL vs TB
26. Michael Boley – NYG vs DAL
27. Stephen Tulloch – DET at GB
28. Mason Foster (R) – TB at ATL
29. Rolando McClain – OAK vs SD
30. David Harris – NYJ at MIA
31. James Harrison – PIT at CLE (Injury Risk: Neck, Probable for Week 17)
32. E.J. Henderson – MIN vs CHI
33. Lance Briggs – CHI at MIN (Injury Risk: Ankle, Probable for Week 17)
34. Aldon Smith (R) – SF at STL
35. Rey Maualuga – CIN vs BAL
36. Larry Grant – SF at STL

DEFENSIVE BACKS

1. George Wilson, S – BUF at NE
2. Darian Stewart, S – STL vs SF
3. Roman Harper, S – NO vs CAR
4. Tyvon Branch, S – OAK vs SD
5. Kam Chancellor, S – SEA at ARI
6. Antoine Bethea, S – IND at JAX
7. Yeremiah Bell, S – MIA vs NYJ
8. Quintin Mikell, S – STL vs SF
9. Bernard Pollard, S – BAL at CIN
10. Antrel Rolle, S – NYG vs DAL
11. Jairus Byrd, S – BUF at NE
12. Amari Spievey, S – DET at GB (Injury Risk: Knee, Questionable for Week 17)
13. Charles Tillman, CB – CHI at MIN
14. Eric Weddle, S – SD at OAK
15. Sean Jones, S – TB at ATL
16. Steve Gregory, S – SD at OAK
17. Morgan Burnett, S – GB vs DET
18. Devin McCourty, CB – NE vs BUF (Injury Risk: Shoulder, Questionable for Week 17)
19. Charles Woodson, CB – GB vs DET (Injury Risk: Knee, Questionable for Week 17)
20. Kyle Arrington, CB – NE vs BUF (Injury Risk: Foot, Questionable for Week 17)
21. Eric Wright, CB – DET at GB
22. Kerry Rhodes, S – ARI vs SEA (Injury Risk: Ankle, Questionable for Week 17)
23. William Moore – S, ATL vs TB
24. Chris Harris, S – DET at GB
25. Earl Thomas, S – SEA at ARI
26. Jason McCourty, CB – TEN at HOU
27. Jaiquawn Jarrett (R), S – PHI vs WAS
28. Kenny Phillips, S, NYG vs DAL
29. Matt Giordano, S – OAK vs SD
30. Troy Polamalu, S – PIT at CLE (Injury Risk: Knee, Probable for Week 17)
31. DeAngelo Hall, CB – WAS at PHI
32. Danieal Manning, S – HOU vs TEN
33. Brandon Flowers, CB – KC at DEN
34. Donte Whitner, S – SF at STL
35. Charlie Peprah, S – GB vs DET
36. Dashon Goldson, S – SF at STL

DEFENSIVE LINEMEN

1. Jared Allen, DE – MIN vs CHI
2. Jason Pierre-Paul, DE – NYG vs DAL
3. Terrell Suggs, DE – BAL at CIN
4. Jason Babin, DE – PHI vs WAS
5. Trent Cole, DE – PHI vs WAS
6. Chris Clemons, DE – SEA at ARI
7. Justin Tuck, DE – NYG vs DAL
8. Elvis Dumervil, DE – DEN vs KC
9. Justin Smith, DE – SF at STL
10. Chris Long, DE – STL vs SF (Injury Risk: Ankle, Questionable for Week 17)
11. Haloti Ngata, DT – BAL at CIN
12. Julius Peppers, DE – CHI at MIN
13. Robert Mathis, DE – IND at JAX
14. Jeremy Mincey, DE – JAX vs IND
15. Calais Campbell, DE – ARI vs SEA
16. J.J. Watt (R), DE – HOU vs TEN
17. Cliff Avril, DE – DET at GB (Injury Risk: Back, Probable for Week 17)
18. Adrian Clayborn (R), DE – TB at ATL (Injury Risk: Hamstring, Probable for Week 17)
19. Will Smith, DE – NO vs CAR
20. Jabaal Sheard (R), DE – CLE vs PIT
21. Geno Atkins, DT – CIN vs BAL
22. Darnell Dockett, DE – ARI vs SEA
23. Charles Johnson, DE – CAR at NO (Injury Risk: Back, Doubtful for Week 17)
24. John Abraham, DE – ATL vs TB (Not Injury Related: Probable for Week 17)
25. Kyle Vanden Bosch, DE – DET at GB
26. Ahtyba Rubin, DT – CLE vs PIT
27. Greg Hardy, DE – CAR at NO
28. Michael Johnson, DE – CIN vs BAL
29. Phil Taylor (R), DT – CLE vs PIT
30. Brandon Deaderick, DE – NE vs BUF
31. Ndamukong Suh, DT – DET at GB
32. Tommy Kelly, DT – OAK vs SD
33. Brian Robison, DE – MIN vs CHI
34. Israel Idonije, DE – CHI at MIN
35. Dwight Freeney, DE – IND at JAX
36. Lamarr Houston, DE – OAK vs SD

Follow me on Twitter @FFOasisPaul
Feel free to email me with any questions: paul@fantasyfootballoasis.com

______________________________________________________________________________________________________

Andre Roberts

Season Statistics: 47/562/2

Place on Team Depth Chart: WR2

Andre Roberts seems to be getting it. In his last 4 games he has put up 20 catches for 254 yards and 2 scores. The reason I am putting him in as a dynasty stash is that to my surprise he was available in a very deep, very skilled dynasty league I am in. He might just be available in yours.

Roberts came out of the Citadel with impressive credentials owning multiple records including , most career receiving yards (2951), most career catches (204) and most catches and receiving yards in a season in 2008 where he ended up with 95/1334/14 not to mention solid kick return numbers as well. He had a decent combine but his combine stats were not as impressive as his game play. Still, he managed to get a solid grade and was selected in the 3rd round by the Arizona Cardinals. He had a somewhat slow start to his career essentially only playing on kick return duty during his rookie campaign and filling in during injuries. Roberts dotted his rookie campaign with a few highlights but certainly didn’t turn many heads.

Roberts needed to put in some major time during the off season essentially to learn how to play pro ball. Coming from the Citadel, a small school, he was a talented but raw player. Roberts did exactly what was needed and he put in his time during the offseason and played well enough to warrant consideration as the starting WR2 to start the season and the Cardinals rewarded him for it making him the WR2 opposite Larry Fitzgerald. While the first half of the season was not dreadful it wasn’t good either. I will split the blame 50-50 between a terrible QB situation and Roberts not completely comfortable with his position yet. Roberts can do everything an NFL Wide Receiver needs to do, he just doesn’t seem to fully understand that yet.

I think his play over the last 4-6 weeks has certainly secured his position with the Cardinals as the starting WR2 and that he will have a full off season in that role and benefit tremendously from it. In case you are reading this Andre, a summer camp with Larry wouldn’t hurt you either my man. If the Cardinals can get some stability at QB then in Roberts 3rd year we could really see something. Larry Fitzgerald is a brilliant player and person to have around a young talented WR. Fitzgerald will free his other Wide Receivers up with constant double teams and I can’t think of a better Wide Receiver to learn the game from then Fitz. Check the waiver wire today and see if Roberts is free, he is a nice little stash to see what happens in that infamous year 3 for wide outs.

I love dynasty leagues and I now play almost exclusively in them. I think I am pretty good at them as well and would like to pass along a few tips to those currently playing in a dynasty and for those of you thinking about joining one. Over the past few years I have played in five main dynasty leagues against what I consider to be excellent competition and I have been fortunate enough to amass a record of 150-45 (a .769 win percentage), making the playoffs with every team, playing in ten championship games and winning seven titles. I truly enjoy playing against the same quality players each year, watching them try and build their team and, well, trying to be better than them. With some luck and skill and hopefully the use of these tips, you as well can enjoy building a dominant dynasty team.

ROOKIE DRAFTS

 Some fantasy players tend to overvalue rookies, and you can take advantage of this. Each season there are elite rookies. These players are very limited and can usually be counted on one hand. A.J. Green, Julio Jones and perhaps Mark Ingram were classed as the sure things for 2011. For 2012 without having started any real research I see Richardson, Luck and Blackmon. Beyond the truly elite, it is a crap shoot. Some players have better situations, others have more talent but when it really comes down to it, it is very hard to predict who will have an impact in their rookie season or even make it in the NFL. Go after the truly elite as hard as you can, they truly are a rare commodity, but if there are no stand outs then don’t think twice about dealing out of the rookie draft or at least dealing down.

 As an example to the scarcity of elite sure fire picks, over the last 5 seasons, these are the only players I had ranked as elite. Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson (2007), Rashard Mendenhall (2008), Dez Bryant (2009) and A.J. Green and Julio Jones (2011).

 I may think that the guy going at 1.04 is going to be great but if I get offered that veteran who has put up five years of solid stats and has 3-4 more years producing the same numbers, I will make the deal. What is that saying — a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush? Two years ago I essentially dealt my first and second round rookie picks (1.11 and 2.11) and a scrub WR for Calvin Johnson. I still don’t know why the guy was down on Johnson, but he wanted picks, and I gave them to him. Deals like that are very rare, but countless times I have seen what turned out to be a useless Round 1 rookie pick dealt for a top 15 WR or RB.

 Here are a few quick comparisons for the last few years. I will use the term “usually” as there are no comprehensive draft lists for rookies to utilize. I did look back through all my drafts and some others from leagues I am familiar with.

 2008 – Chris Johnson, Ray Rice and Jamaal Charles usually were drafted behind Kevin Smith, Jonathon Stewart and Felix Jones

 2009 – Shady McCoy, Hakeem Nicks and Percy Harvin were usually drafted behind Moreno, Beanie Wells and Donald Brown. Have to mention that Arian Foster averaged out as a round 3 rookie pick.

 2010 – Well, just a bad draft class with Dez Bryant the only notable pick so far but Gronkowski and Graham went late 2nd or early 3rd in most drafts.

 This to me shows that unless you are in the top 3, it is a crap shoot. You can get that future superstar at 1.08, 2.03 or even 3.04. If you can spot the talent, you can build a dominant dynasty from wherever you draft.

 The second part to having successful rookie drafts is to study. It’s pretty simple, but it truly is key to figure out on your own why you think a rookie will not only make it in the NFL but be meaningful in fantasy terms. If you can figure out why you should have taken LeSean McCoy instead of Donald Brown or Knowshon Moreno then you are on your way to becoming a dominant dynasty player. It isn’t easy, but it is straight forward. All the information you need is readily available on the Internet and if you can piece it together, it will give you a decided advantage over your opponents.

Things to key in on in your study are:

 1) Amount of carries – Be cautious of the RB who had 300-plus carries a year for multiple years in college. More often than not, he will burn out fairly quickly.

 2) Pro offense – Move him up a notch or two, regardless of position, if they did come from a pro style offense. The learning curve is that much easier for them when they hit the NFL.

 3) Yards per carry or reception – This is a very important stat to look at. The RB who put up 4,200 yards on 1,300 carries moves down on my list. Same thing goes for the WR who averaged under 10 yards per catch. You want to see some play-making ability rather than just guys who got fed the ball a lot.

 4) One year wonders – Guys can fly up draft boards both at the NFL level and in fantasy based on their senior season. It isn’t an exact science, but these players are not usually NFL calibre players or at least long term elite talent. More often than not the player is a fad and fads are only fads because they burn out.

  Lastly, if you have the 1.01 pick in a rookie draft, it has been my experience that someone in your league really wants it. They will lowball you, then probably lowball you again. Stand your ground and make them pay. If they won’t step up with an offer you like, make the pick and make sure he is a sure-fire superstar; you are going to need a superstar if you want to build a dynasty. If it is a year where the top picks are less than elite, deal the pick and don’t be afraid to get less than “great” value. Let’s put it this way… would you like to get a top 10 RB or WR for the 1.01 pick…. of course you would. But, would you rather have a top 20 WR and the 1.08 pick or Knowshon Moreno? Yeah, me too.

 I through up the picture of Maurice Drew Jones because he was one of my best draft picks in dynasty leagues. I was playing in multiple leagues at the time and I got him in most leagues at 1.12 or later, and I just like the dude.

Most leagues have their championship game in week 16, so if you are reading this, congrats on making it all the way to the championship game! Time to set your lineups for week 16. Here we have my Top 36 Linebackers, Defensive Backs, and Defensive Linemen for week 16. Good luck!

Thursday Night Game Alert: Make sure to get your Texans & Colts in your lineup before tonight’s game!

Saturday Games Alert: Don’t forget that the majority of this week’s games will be played on Saturday (Christmas Eve).

Happy holidays to everyone and their families!

Cheatsheet based on IDP Manor Scoring:

Tackles: 1 Point Each
Assists: .5 Points Each
Fumbles Forced: 2 points Each
Fumbles Recovered: 2 points Each
Interceptions: 4 Points Each
Sacks: 4 Points Each
Safety: 4 Points Each
TD: 6 Points Each
Passes Defensed: 1 Point Each

LINEBACKERS

1. D’Qwell Jackson – CLE at BAL
2. London Fletcher – WAS vs MIN (Injury Risk: Ankle, Probable for Week 16)
3. Derrick Johnson – KC vs OAK
4. Colin McCarthy (R) – TEN vs JAX
5. Pat Angerer – IND vs HOU
6. Nick Barnett – BUF vs DEN
7. James Laurinaitis – STL at PIT
8. NaVorro Bowman – SF at SEA
9. Chad Greenway – MIN at WAS
10. Ray Lewis – BAL vs CLE
11. Jerod Mayo – NE vs MIA
12. Stephen Tulloch – DET vs SD
13. Paul Posluszny – JAX at TEN
14. Curtis Lofton – ATL at NO (Injury Risk: Ankle, Questionable for Week 16)
15. David Hawthorne – SEA vs SF (Injury Risk: Knee, Probable for Week 16)
16. D.J. Williams – DEN at BUF
17. Daryl Washington – ARI at CIN
18. Sean Lee – DAL vs PHI (Injury Risk: Wrist, Probable for Week 16)
19. James Anderson – CAR vs TB
20. Brian Urlacher – CHI at GB
21. Sean Weatherspoon – ATL at NO
22. Michael Boley – NYG at NYJ
23. Karlos Dansby – MIA at NE
24. E.J. Henderson – MIN at WAS
25. James Harrison – PIT vs STL
26. Lance Briggs – CHI at GB (Injury Risk: Ankle, Questionable for Week 16)
27. Larry Grant – SF at SEA
28. DeAndre Levy – DET vs SD
29. Aldon Smith (R) – SF at SEA
30. D.J. Smith – GB vs CHI
31. Rolando McClain – OAK at KC
32. Brian Cushing – HOU at IND
33. David Harris – NYJ vs NYG (Injury Risk: Not Injury Related, Probable for Week 16)
34. Rey Maualuga – CIN vs ARI (Injury Risk: Not Injury Related, Probable for Week 16)
35. Von Miller (R) – DEN at BUF (Injury Risk: Thumb, Probable for Week 16)
36. DeMarcus Ware – DAL vs PHI (Injury Risk: Neck, Questionable for Week 16)

DEFENSIVE BACKS

1. George Wilson, S – BUF vs DEN
2. Roman Harper, S – NO vs ATL
3. Darian Stewart, S – STL at PIT
4. Antoine Bethea, S – IND vs HOU
5. Tyvon Branch, S – OAK at KC
6. Kam Chancellor, S – SEA vs SF
7. Amari Spievey, S – DET vs SD (Injury Risk: Knee, Probable for Week 16)
8. Yeremiah Bell, S – MIA at NE
9. Kurt Coleman, S – PHI at DAL
10. Charles Woodson, CB – GB vs CHI
11. Antrel Rolle, S – NYG at NYJ
12. Jairus Byrd, S – BUF vs DEN
13. Morgan Burnett, S – GB vs CHI
14. Bernard Pollard, S – BAL vs CLE
15. Charles Tillman, CB – CHI at GB
16. Quintin Mikell, S – STL at PIT
17. Earl Thomas, S – SEA vs SF
18. Eric Weddle, S – SD at DET
19. DeAngelo Hall, CB – WAS vs MIN
20. William Moore – S, ATL at NO
21. Charles Godfrey, S – CAR vs TB (Injury Risk: Shoulder, Questionable for Week 16)
22. Sean Jones, S – TB at CAR
23. Jason McCourty, CB – TEN vs JAX
24. Brandon Flowers, CB – KC vs OAK
25. Troy Polamalu, S – PIT vs STL
26. Donte Whitner, S – SF at SEA
27. Malcolm Jenkins, S – NO vs ATL
28. E.J. Biggers, CB – TB at CAR
29. Dashon Goldson, S – SF at SEA
30. Kyle Arrington, CB – NE vs MIA (Injury Risk: Foot, Questionable for Week 16)
31. Eric Smith, S – NYJ vs NYG (Injury Risk: Knee, Questionable for Week 16)
32. Tramon Williams, CB – GB vs CHI
33. Jacob Lacey, CB – IND vs HOU
34. Dawan Landry, S – JAX at TEN
35. Kenny Phillips, S, NYG at NYJ
36. Danieal Manning, S – HOU at IND

DEFENSIVE LINEMEN

1. Terrell Suggs, DE – BAL vs CLE
2. Jason Pierre-Paul, DE – NYG at NYJ
3. Jared Allen, DE – MIN at WAS
4. Jason Babin, DE – PHI at DAL
5. Trent Cole, DE – PHI at DAL
6. Chris Clemons, DE – SEA vs SF
7. Justin Smith, DE – SF at SEA
8. Chris Long, DE – STL at PIT (Injury Risk: Ankle, Questionable for Week 16)
9. Elvis Dumervil, DE – DEN at BUF
10. Haloti Ngata, DT – BAL vs CLE
11. Cliff Avril, DE – DET vs SD
12. Julius Peppers, DE – CHI at GB
13. Justin Tuck, DE – NYG at NYJ
14. Jeremy Mincey, DE – JAX at TEN
15. Kyle Vanden Bosch, DE – DET vs SD (Injury Risk: Neck, Questionable for Week 16)
16. Charles Johnson, DE – CAR vs TB (Injury Risk: Back, Questionable for Week 16)
17. Adrian Clayborn (R), DE – TB at CAR
18. Will Smith, DE – NO vs ATL
19. J.J. Watt (R), DE – HOU at IND
20. Jabaal Sheard (R), DE – CLE at BAL
21. Geno Atkins, DT – CIN vs ARI
22. Mark Anderson, DE – NE vs MIA
23. Greg Hardy, DE – CAR vs TB (Injury Risk: Illness, Questionable for Week 16)
24. John Abraham, DE – ATL at NO (Not Injury Related, Questionable for Week 16)
25. Calais Campbell, DE – ARI at CIN
26. Robert Mathis, DE – IND vs HOU
27. Darnell Dockett, DE – ARI at CIN
28. Michael Johnson, DE – CIN vs ARI
29. Dave Ball, DE – TEN vs JAX
30. Ahtyba Rubin, DT – CLE at BAL
31. Israel Idonije, DE – CHI at GB
32. Brandon Deaderick, DE – NE vs MIA
33. Ndamukong Suh, DT – DET vs SD
34. Tommy Kelly, DT – OAK at KC (Injury Risk: Toe, Questionable for Week 16)
35. Robert Quinn (R) – STL at PIT
36. Lamarr Houston, DE – OAK at KC

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