But what about the people who have a financial budget.  Let’s say you’re willing to spend only $200-$500 on a night… then you are either at a top club with no table, or at an average place where all the hot girls are getting eye balled by every guy in the place.  But if you have talent you will make the best of it and bring the girls to you because you have game.

Two of my sleeper receivers are guys who are in the right spot at the right time and the other two have tons of skill and will figure out a way to have the ball come to them.

2 PPR Sleepers in the Right Spot at the Right Time

Jabar Gaffney

Jabar Gaffney will be the number 1 receiver in Denver.  Denver lost Mike Nolan as defensive coordinator, and the Broncos defense will be substantially worse than it was in 2009.  Thus the Broncos offense will have to throw more.  With no Brandon Marshall someone will catch passes.  It will be Gaffney.  In week 17 when Marshall was benched Gaffney caught 14 passes for 213 yards.  It went unnoticed because almost all fantasy seasons are over after week 16 and it happened against the Chiefs.  Obviously, Gaffney won’t be catching 14 passes a game, but week 16 & 17 show that Orton trust in Gaffney (Week 16  stats:  7 receptions 69 yards and 2 tds).  Gaffney has never caught more than 55 passes or had more than 723 yards but he has also never been the starter.  He was buried on the depth chart in New England and had trouble adjusting at the beginning of his career in Houston.  Josh McDaniels likes to throw the ball so expect Gaffney to get lots of targets and lots of receptions.

Projection:  75 receptions, 1000 yards, 5 tds:  205 Fantasy points.

Nate Burleson

This one is real simple, Calvin Johnson will demand double coverage every play.  Detroit’s defense will give up a ton of points (albeit it will be better than it was in 2009), therefore Stafford will throw lots of passes.  Burleson has provided a strong veteran presence in the locker room and from what I have read has earned the respect of his teammates even though he is new to the team.  Stafford will find him often on short routes making him ppr gold.  Last year in 13 games Burleson had 63 catches 812 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Even though Burleson got banged up at the end of last season he appears completely healthy.  Detroit’s offense in 2010 should be better than Seattle’s offense in 2009 (he was the number #2 to Houshmanzadeh).  There is no reason to expect Burleson can’t go for more catches, yards and td’s than he did in 2009.

Projection:  75 catches, 950 yards, 4 tds:  194 Fantasy points.

2 Sleepers with Talent

Jacoby Jones (Hou)

This guy has tons of talent and is going into his fourth year where many receivers start to understand how to play at the NFL level.  As it stands now he is the third receiver behind Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter.  But he will become the number two receiver soon and send the speedy Walter to the slot role.  Jones will thrive in that #2 WR role.  Andre Johnson will draw double teams, Owen Daniels will demand attention, Arian Foster will keep defenses honest and Jones will reap the benefits of one on one coverage.  Last year on 27 receptions he had 6 touchdowns and averaged 16+ yards per reception.  Why so many touchdowns and yards on such few receptions…because he beats one on one coverage badly.  Schaub is only getting better and will find the open receiver.  Expect big return on your late investment from Jacoby.

Projection:  60 catches, 900 yards, 7 tds:  192 fantasy points.

This guy would probably start for 25+ teams, but is stuck in the number 3 role behind Donald Driver and Greg Jennings.  Donald Driver is getting old and had two off-season knee surgeries.  It is more likely than not that Driver misses some games this season.  Jones has a great blend of speed and power.  He had been extremely impressive in training camp and will destroy any nickel cornerback who has the unfortunate task of covering him one on one.  Sure the ball will be spread around in Green Bay as Jennings, Finley and Driver will catch plenty of passes from Rodgers.  But the Packers don’t have a real receiving threat out of the back field and I believe Driver will take a step back.  By mid season James Jones will be the #3 option in a top 5 passing offense drawing single coverage.  Rodgers could be the best statistical quarterback in the game and his receiving options will reap the benefits.

Projection:  65 catches, 900 yards, 6tds:  191 fantasy points

(PPR Leagues)

Matt Forte (CHI)

Matt Forte

Every report out of Chicago is that Forte is in great condition, injury free, and looking sharp and quick.  Don’t underestimate that information when you have a new offensive coordinator in Martz who has made many Rb’s (Faulk, Gore) PPR machines.  Sure, the Bears brought in Chester Taylor, but he was a cheap backup when your top RB is earning 2^nd round rookie pay (44^th pick of the 2008 draft).  Rest assured the Bears want Forte to be the guy, and he will be.  Chester Taylor will spell Forte at times and might even be the goaline back, but Forte will get the bulk of the carries and most of the receptions which makes him ppr gold.

Let’s look at Forte’s stats:

• 2008:  316 Att, 1238 yards, 8 Tds, 63 Catches 477 yards 4 Tds = Approx 305 pts in ppr scoring
• 2009:  258 Att 929 yards, 4 Tds, 57 Catches 471 yards 0 Tds =  Approx 220 points in ppr scoring

Now, Forte’s 2009 stats don’t give him value as a first round pick, but they are nothing to snicker at.  In fact in ppr leagues he was the 12^th best running back.  There is no reason to think Forte will put up worse numbers in 2010 than he did in 2009.  His new coordinator loves getting the ball into his running backs hands on dump offs, he still has young legs at 24, and he’s gotten another offseason to work with Cutler.

Forte is currently going between pick 45 and 50 in ppr drafts.  I feel Forte will be top 10 and should be going between pick 20-25.  If you can get him in the forth you are going to get a bargain.

Projection:

• 250 Att, 1025 yards, 4 Tds, 65 receptions for 500 yards 2 Tds = 253 points.

Clinton Portis (Wash)

Clinton Portis

It’s not that I am so high on Portis this year, it is more that everyone is so low on him.  How in the world is his ADP around 100.  That is absurd.  Willie Parker might get cut, Larry Johnson is the clear number 2, and Shanahan loves Portis with his zone blocking scheme.  Donavan will open up that entire offense which actually has numerous threats in Cooley, Davis, S. Moss, D. Thomas.  I understand that Portis is an injury risk but he is also a potential stud.

Last season Portis played 8 games, but the 8^th game he rushed 4 times for 4 yards before coming out.  In the seven games Portis gained 490 yards rushing a TD and 9 catches for 57 yards and another Td.  Over a full season that is over 1000 yards rushing about 20 catches for another 100 or so yards and 4 total Tds which would be approximately 154 points.  I know that is not good.  But Portis is one season removed from 1487 yards rushing 9 Tds, 28 receptions for 218 yards for approximately 251 points.  When Portis got hurt in 2006 after 7 games (at that time he had 523 yards rushing 7 tds, and 17 catches for 170 yards) he bounced back in 2007 with 1262 yards rushing 11 tds, 47 catches and 389 yards receiving.

Portis has a lot of wear and tear on a 28 year old guy, there is no doubt about that (he turns 29 on September 1^st), but the fact that he only played half the season last year will only help keep him fresh for one more solid season.  Portis is still young and while I don’t forsee 2007 numbers I think he will be a very solid number two running back.  Portis will definitely be the Skins short-yardage and goal line back.  Portis may not catch too many passes as he probably won’t be the third down back but keep in mind McNabb loves dumping the ball to his running backs as he showed to Westbrook and then McCoy last year so expect Portis to get a few catches.  I have Portis as a top 15 running back this season and think he should be going around the 50^th pick.

Projection:

• 280 Att, 1100 yards 8 Tds, 20 receptions for 150 yards = 193 points.

Darren Sproles (SD)

Darren Sproles

Ryan Mathews is not going to take the number 1 spot in SD and run with it.  I think he will be utilized but not much as people think.  I see Sproles having a bigger impact in the San Diego offense than Mathews.  Sproles is familiar with the offensive scheme, familiar with the players (especially Rivers) and San Diego franchised him and paid him a lot of money for a reason.  The reason being he is good and explosive.

Last season Sproles carried 93 times for 343 yards and 3 tds.  He had 45 receptions for 497 yards and another 4 tds for about 170 fantasy points.  He is a guy going around pick 100.  Just too low.  I think Sproles has a lot of upside too as rookies can have problems catching the ball out of the backfield, and with blocking.  I see a true time share and I expect Sproles to get about 125 rushing attempts and 55 or so receptions.

Projection:

• 125 Att, 600 yards, 4 Tds, 55 receptions 550 yards, 2 Tds = 206 points.



Make sure to check out my sleeper article on Quarterbacks!

• Brett Favre pulled more unnecessary drama.
• Tom Brady decided this time he didn’t want to cheat on his current girlfriend/wife while she was pregnant.
• Peyton Manning did another commercial that wasn’t funny.
• Vince Young decided to fight at a strip club… at least he attacked a man.
• Big Ben showed his well… Big Ben… in the bathroom.
• Michael Vick had a gun blazin 30^th birthday bash.
• Matt Leinart winked at female fan and she fainted.
• Mark Sanchez did the same as Leinart except the fan was male and he fainted.
• Donavon McNabb took another verbal beating from an ex-WR (Jackson).
• And to make it all ok Tim Tebow said a prayer for all of us while he was crying.

So who is the Next Peyton, who is the 2010 version of Aaron Rodgers, who is the next Drew Brees.  There are 32 starting QBs and most leagues only start one QB.  Clearly a sleeper QB is not as important as a sleeper running back or receiver.  This is why you need to shoot for the stars with your sleeper QBs.  Go big or go home.  Guys who can jump to the top 5 at their position.  If you are in multiple QB leagues then it is understandable to take consistency.

Criteria:  What should you look for when evaluating sleeper QBs?

• Weather: Plays in a Dome, how many potentially tough weather condition games does that QB have
• Defense: Is the QBs own pass defense weak where you could see lots of shootouts involving quick strike drives.
• Threats: Do they have a running back who can catch the ball?  A TE who is a good red-zone target?  An Elite Receiver?

Last year at FFO I ranked Schaub as my #5 QB when he was generally being drafted around pick 10.  He was the boom or bust type due to his injury history.  But he played in warm weather, with a stud WR, with a weak defense in a division with a schedule that did not have a tremendous amount of elite passing defenses.  So without further ado…my 2010 Sleeper QBs:

MATT RYAN (ATL)

Atlanta Quarterback Matt Ryan

Matt Ryan will be a fantasy superstar this year.  He is this year’s Matt Schaub.  I would draft him over guys such as Flacco, Kolb, and even Rivers.  Here is why:  Matt Ryan has been nicknamed Matty Ice because he is chill, relaxed and handles pressure well…if you read comments from Ryan’s teammates, they say he is an extremely hard worker, and has earned their respect by playing through injuries for most of last season.  Last season Ryan got hurt in week 12 against the Bucs on the first series of the game.  He finished that game 2/3 for 15 yards.  He then missed weeks 13 and 14 and returned on the road against the best D in the NFL in Week 15 against the Jets and went 16/34 for 152 yards and a TD.  If you take away the Bucs game, the two missed games and the return on the road against Revis and the Jets Ryan’s stats for 12 games was 2749 yards passing and 21 scores.  If you calculate that out over 16 games it would be 3,665 yards and about 28 Tds.  This doesn’t take into account that Ryan played injured for most of 2009.  As a Rookie in 2008 Ryan threw for 3,440 yards and 16 Tds playing all 16 games.

Now let’s look at some miscellaneous factors.  First:  Ryan should get better going into year three of his NFL career.  The coaching staff has over doubled the playbook for the hurry up offense due to Ryan’s progress.  Second, Ryan has a touchdown scoring TE in Gonzalez, a great yardage and reception receiver in Roddy White, a solid power running back in Turner and scat back that everyone seems to forget in Jerious Norwood.  Tons of weapons!!  Third, he plays in a dome, and after the bye week the Falcons have two games with potential weather issues which are November 11^th @ Baltimore and December 19^th against Seattle.  With the injuries to the Ravens secondary and Seattle’s weak secondary in general unless the weather is brutal Ryan’s stats will be fine in those games.  Therefore, you won’t have many weeks to worry about sitting Ryan.  Fourth, the Falcons defense if fairly weak as they were 28^th against the pass and 21^st overall.  Expect lots of shootouts in the dome.

I am projecting a full season for Ryan and estimating (on the conservative side) a slight improvement to his 2009 pro-rated numbers and projecting 3900 yards passing 30 tds, 15 Ints, 50 yards rushing.  If you miss out on a top QB I’d rather have Ryan in Round 6-8 than Manning, Brady, Schaub or Rivers in Round 2-4.

* I like Matt Stafford as a sleeper in this scoring system.

** I like Jay Cutler in any league that doesn’t penalize for turnovers.

DAVID GARRARD (JAX)

Jacksonville Quarterback David Garrard

In league where passing TD’s are worth 4 points, rushing tds are worth 6 points, every 25 yards passing is 1 point, and every 10 yards rushing is a point, David Garrard only scored about 38 points less than Tom Brady in 2009.  That is about 2 points per week.  David Garrard is currently being draft somewhere between the 20^th QB taken and the 25^th QB taken.  This makes absolutely no sense to me.  Not in a league that awards QB’s only 4 points per TD.  Garrard is the best dual threat in the league from a fantasy perspective (Yes better than Vince Young) and should be a borderline top 10 player in this scoring system.  And the best part is you can him get late…very late.  This allows you all sorts of flexibility in stacking your roster at other positions.

Don’t believe me?  Go look at Garrard’s stats over the last two years.  2009:  3,597 yards passing 15 TD’s and 10 Ints, 323 yards rushing and 2 Tds.  2008:  3,620 yards passing 16 TD’s, 13 Ints and 322 yards rushing and 2 Tds.  So….if you’ve been reading this you should immediately start yelling…what the F..K?  Didn’t you say you draft sleeper QBs for upside.  Well. Yes I did.  But that doesn’t mean you ignore value and he has some upside with MJD and MSW.  In 2007, he threw for 18 touchdowns in 12 games and rushed for another.  Pro-rate that out to a full season and you have 24 passing Tds.  Want to compare him to Vince Young…well Young threw for only 1879 yards and 10 Tds over with 281 yards rushing and 2 Tds over 10 games.  And Young is being drafted as a borderline top 15 QB in most drafts.

Garrard finished 16^th in passing yards in 2009 and 10^th in 2008.  Not too bad when he is basically guaranteed to be top 3 (if not first) in rushing points for quarterbacks.  Garrard plays in a division with no real solid pass defense.  Indy ranked 14^th in yards passing per game, Houston 18^th, and Tennessee 31^st.  Jacksonville ranked 27^th which means the potential exists for numerous shootouts by the Jags.  Also, the only game with any weather implication is November 28^th @ NYG.

Projection:  3600 passing, 18 Tds, 12 Int, 325 yards rushing 3 Tds.

**Also like Jason Campbell as a sleeper in this scoring system

So go figure that Jerome Harrison
will be the best fantasy producing player in Week 15. He plays
for the Browns for crying out loud. There is no worse feeling
then being the #1 seed and scoring the second most amount of points
of the 4 teams in the semifinals, yet it is your opponent, and the 4
seed who puts up the most of the 4 semifinalist to beat you and go to
the finals. And it is even worse when that 4 seed has an awful team
and got lucky by having Jennings, Big Ben, and the Philly D. And
it is even worse when that opponent is your brother.

My Random
Thoughts

• Very sad what happened
  to Chris Henry. The Bengals played hard for their fallen friend
  and teammate.
• The Patriots are
  not very good
• The Steelers have
  a poor defense
• Jamaal Charles will
  come back to earth this week
• Jerome Harrison
  will continue to soar
• The AFC playoff
  race is awesome. 8 teams 8-6 or 7-7. Wow.
• Chris Johnson is
  the #1 fantasy back for next season…ahead of both Peterson and Jones
  Drew. Rice is #4.
• Brett Favre is going
  to be the reason the Vikings lose in either the Divisional playoff game
  or NFC Championship.
• Jackson and Austin
  should both be in your top 10 for receivers next season
• If the Titans make
  the playoffs they could be the most dangerous 6 seed of all time.

GET THEM IN YOUR STARTING
LINEUP:

Cedric Benson:
Did you see what Jerome Harrison did to the Chiefs? Benson is
better than Harrison…the Bengals get the Chiefs at home.

Michael Turner:
Atlanta plays Buffalo’s worst run D.

Michael Crabtree:
Detroit has the worst pass defense. Smith has been looking for
Crabtree more and more. He should explode this week.

Pierre Thomas:
He should see enough carries in the split backfield to be very effective
against the Bucs.

TRY TO FIND A WAY TO FIT
THEM IN YOUR LINEUP:

Jerious Norwood:
The Bills can not stop the run at all.

Jerome Harrison:
He should find a way to get 100 yards and a score against the Raiders
weak rush defense.

Terrell Owens:
He has been quiet the last two weeks, but the Falcons secondary is a
joke. Braylon “I can’t catch a cold” caught 5 for 105 and
a TD last week. TO should have a big day in the dome.

WAIVER PICK-UPS FOR THE
WEEK

There is not much to pickup
this week, but here are a few.

Jerome Harrison:
Browns play the Raiders who have a worst run D than the Chiefs

Maurice Morris:
Clearly the #1 back now that Smith is out for the year.

Jermichael Finley:
He might be a better play than pre-season studs such as Witten or Gonzo.
He might be a replacement for Clark if he doesn’t play. 21 catches
223 yards and 3 tds over the last 3 games.

Lee Evans: If
you are desperate for a WR, Evans is playing one of the worst secondaries
in the league in the Falcons in the dome.

Since most leagues don’t play week 17, any league who has quarterfinals will begin their playoffs this week, semi’s in week 15 and finals in week 16. In leagues with 4 team playoffs, there will be numerous teams playing in the last week of the regular season in must win situations, which will ultimately be a playoff game anyway. And with the Fantasy Football playoffs beginning it is important to talk about Loyalty. And why you need to temper your loyalty to win in your fantasy Playoffs.

I am not saying don’t ride the guys that got you there, but I am saying you may want to consider benching a guy who was a key component of your playoff run. Let me explain…Cedric Benson has a brutal week 14 matchup against the Vikings, and I am fairly certain a large percentage of teams who own Benson are in the playoffs as he probably was one of the best draft values in any league. But…he won’t have a great day against the Vikings, and he doesn’t catch a lot of balls to get points through the air. In my ppr league there is absolutely no question I will be starting Jamaal Charles over Benson who has a great matchup against the Bills. Same goes for Tom Brady…there might be awful weather in NE, he is slightly injured, and is playing the Panthers who have a great pass defense. If the weather is brutal in NE next Sunday I would bench Brady for someone like Alex Smith, no matter how crazy that sounds. Alex Smith is playing the Cardinals who are 3rd worst pass in SF where the weather should be good. Now if the weather is good in NE I’d probably go with Brady, however my point is don’t worry who thinks you are crazy if there is sound logic to your choice, and more importantly your gut tells you to do it.

If you have nothing to play for this week, and are locked into a playoffs spot it is always a good idea to see if there is a defense on waivers that would make a good play in week 15. Ex: For ex: Denver plays Indy this week, and may get dropped, but they play Oakland in Week 15.

My Random Thoughts

· I think the Bengals made it a point to give the ball to Cedric Benson as much as possible to prevent the media from stirring up any running back controversy

· I think Tom Brady is hurting quite a bit.

· I think it is hilarious the Raiders beat the defending Superbowl Champion Steelers

· I think Brett Favre will choke in the playoffs.

· I think the Carolina Panther coach next season will be Bill Cowher and I think that is a mistake as John Fox is a very good coach.

· I think the Eagles will win the NFC Championship if and only if Brian Westbrook makes a healthy return.

· I think Vince Young is the most exciting Quarterback in the league because you have no clue what he is going to do: run, throw a good pass, throw a bad pass, throw an int, or fumble.

· I think the elimination of revenue sharing will be very painful for the majority of teams and the players themselves.

· I think it is in both the players and owners best interest to have a salary cap

· And… I think I was very excited when my girlfriend wanted to watch the Victoria Secret fashion show last Tuesday, even though it is completely overrated and insanely boring.

GET THEM IN YOUR STARTING LINEUP:

Jamaal Charles: The Bills are the worst run defense in the NFL. Charles is the clear number 1 running back in KC who got all the red-zone carries against the Broncos. A top 10 RB this week. Projection: 110 yards rushing, TD, 3 catches for 28 yards.

Rashard Mendenhall: As of today they are projecting freezing temperatures and high winds. I expect the Steelers to run a lot against the Browns 29th ranked rush D. He might fall under the obvious start category. Projection: 125 yards 2 tds, 1 catch 6 yards.

Mike Sims-Walker: Don’t be nervous that he had a bad game against the Texans. He plays at home against the Fins who have the 26th ranked pass defense. Projection: 5 catches 95 yards and a TD.

TRY TO FIND A WAY TO FIT THEM IN YOUR LINEUP:

Alex Smith & Michael Crabtree: The Cardinals are the third worst team against the pass, and this game should have a lot of points. Expect the 49ers to throw to keep pace.

Robert Meachem & Devery Henderson: The Falcons are 28th against the pass and the Saints will be comfortable in the dome. The Saints won’t want a repeat of last weeks close call.

Terrell Owens: With Fitzpatrick as the QB, Owens has been a solid fantasy producing wideout excluding games in which he is covered by Revis. Revis won’t be on the Chiefs this week who rank 27th against the pass.

David Garrard: He has put up fairly solid numbers at home this season. Last week at home he threw 2 tds and over 250 yards. This week he faces the Fins 26th ranked pass defense.

WAIVER PICK-UPS FOR THE WEEK:

Robert Meachem: He will continue to be effective until Lance Moore returns.

NYJ D: Great matchup this week against TB. Could be available in your league.

Fred Davis: He is becoming Campbell’s outlet, especially since most of the Skins running backs are out. He has 25 catches for 274 yards and 3 tds over the last 6 games since the Cooley injury. 9 for 96 and 2 tds in last two.

Kenny Britt: I mentioned him last week and he responded with 3 catches for 46 yards and a TD. The Titans play the Rams this week so he should have another good game. He has a TD in his last three games.

WAIVER PICK-UPS FOR THE SEASON

Davone Bess: PPR only. Guy has 59 catches on the season. 10 last week. He is Henne’s go-to.

Jerome Harrison: Cleveland’s starting back, won’t get a ton of carries but will get a good amount of receptions and total yards. Had 97 yards and 2 scores last week. Has 29 catches on the season and he has mainly been Jamal Lewis’s backup.

Week 13: I Kinda Understand What it’s Like to be a 30 year Old Running Back Who Needs to Give Way to the Youngster.

HELLO AUNT CHERI…it was nice to see you!!  My Aunt Cheri was especially excited of the possibility to get mentioned in my article, even though I doubt she knows exactly what fantasy football is…so she gets a little shout out.   I also want to say it was great seeing everyone else as well (Mom, Bubbie, JK, Aunt Margie, Aunt Joanne, Uncle Howard, Uncle Mark, Uncle David, and Cousins Lance, Jorey, Aden, Lauren, Sam, Lindsay, Hallie, Jared).

One of the more amusing family stories of the weekend:  My brother and I lived together for basically three years in Atlanta while he got his JD/MBA from Emory. To say my brother and I have a competitive relationship would be putting things mildly.  So when he came home from NYC he had packed on a few pounds courtesy of his new Investment banking work schedule as oppose to his leisurely student life.  For the last 3-4 years my brother has routinely beat me in races of over a mile, but to my credit he was also in phenomenal shape as I was the working man. We both started talking trash in which I called him fat at least a half dozen times.  So we settled on a 2.5 mile race and decided to make a friendly family style bet on it. We debated between the loser taking a piece of my mom’s delicious pistachio cake to the face or standing shirtless outside in the cold Buffalo wind while the other pours a ice cold beer over your head.  Since we decided we didn’t want to waste the cake we ultimately settled on the loser taking a beer over the head.  And yes…my brother who has packed on about 15 additional pounds in the last three months was able to enjoy pouring a beer over my head about two hours before we met up with the family for Thanksgiving.  And he beat me rather convincingly…by 49 f’ing seconds.   Man, I’m getting old.

Ok…onto football stuff.  I was lucky enough to go home and get two 50 yard-line seats to the Bills/Fins game this past Sunday (Thank you LD), and I truly believe that TO is becoming a much better actor.  I am convinced that TO has taken some phenomenal acting lessons (maybe in Toronto) because he has the Buffalo fans convinced that he likes being a Bill.  I watched the TO show and this man couldn’t act to save his life.  But, he is certainly pretending to be the team player in B-lo.  And the fans are buying it…he has them sold.  After he scored his 4^th quarter TD the fans were chanting his name. Kinda made me sick…TO who was given the key to the city is on pace for less than 1000 yards and less than 80 receptions and fans are chanting his name????  What??  Am I missing something??? I’ve decided that TO is the next Tom Hanks for this recent performance

My Random Thoughts

· There is nothing that I enjoy more (other than the Bills winning) than watching Brady and Belicheat lose and look dumb doing it.

· I like the entire Colts organization and find myself routing for Manning and the Polian’s (Father and Son).

· The Saints are just fun to watch.

· Don’t like seeing Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger hurt as they are the two best young QB’s in the league (or two of the best three as Rivers looks great too).

· I am really surprised Hines Ward called out Big Ben…kinda bizarre.  I can’t question either of their toughness, but I really lost some respect for Ward who should have kept any issue like that internal…I mean who calls out your QB who won you two Super Bowls who has played through a ton of injuries and is regarded as one of the toughest at his position?

· How pissed must Cedric Benson be that LJ looks to stand between him and a big pay day in the offseason.  That situation will be very fun to watch.  What goes around comes around… Bears fans must love this new development in the Benson saga.

GET THEM IN YOUR STARTING LINEUP:

Cedric Benson: If he plays he will get carries and run with something to prove now that LJ is in the mix.  The Lions won’t stop him.

Thomas Jones: Last time he played the Bills he rushed for 200+.

Brett Favre: Zona’s pass defense just gave up almost 400 yards to Vince Young and is ranked 29^th in the NFL.

TRY TO FIND A WAY TO FIT THEM IN YOUR LINEUP:

Jonathan Stewart: It doesn’t matter who the Panthers QB is.  TB has a really bad defense.

Ochocinco: Just because he has been mediocre the last couple weeks doesn’t mean it is time to bench him against the Lions.

Sidney Rice/Percy Harvin/ Bernard Berrian:  See Brett Favre above.

WAIVER PICK-UPS FOR THE WEEK

Jerious Norwood: Turner was not ready to come back and has re-injured himself. Snelling lost a key fumble.  I expect Norwood to be a big part of the Falcons offense the next couple weeks. Could be a good pickup for the season, but definitely for this week.

Jeremy Maclin: This concussion thing around the NFL has everyone running scared.  I don’t expect Jackson to play as the Eagles will be especially careful since Westbrook returned too early and got further head injuries which might sideline him for the season. Maclin will have a big game against a weak Falcons secondary assuming Jackson doesn’t go.  He is available in many leagues.

Matt Moore: If you are a Matt Ryan, Big Ben or even Kurt Warner owner don’t be afraid to get Jake Delhomme’s replacement for the week.  They play the Bucs who let Chris Redman throw two touchdowns. The Bucs have given up 24 td’s the third most in the NFL.

WAIVER PICK-UPS FOR THE SEASON

Fred Jackson: He has resumed the role of the Bills number 1 running back.

Donnie Avery: Since I mentioned him after his bye week he has 12 receptions for 180 yards and 3 tds in 3 games.  I expect those numbers to continue.

Kenny Britt: He is apparently Vince Young’s go to receiver.  Last two games had 4 for 42 and a td and 7 for 128 and a td.  Defenses will key on Chris Johnson leaving Britt open for big plays.

James Jones: In deeper league only. Has 15 catches for 177 yards and 2 tds in his last 4.

Fred Davis: Since Cooley’s injury he has 20 receptions for 221 yards and 2 tds in 5 games. Solid for a TE.

Jamaal Charles: If for some unknown reason he is available in your league go grab him. Especially in a ppr league. A great addition to any roster even if it is only for depth purposes.

Week 12: The Rock will get the Rock.

I grew up in Buffalo New York and will be heading back there for the first time in over a year to see my family for Thanksgiving.  You see I love Buffalo…I really do.  I would live there if the city had an economy and some life.  I think the people are great, I obviously love the sports teams, the food is fantastic, and it is a nice luxury to have Casino’s nearby.  Unfortunately, Buffalo’s economy is dying and while it is still a great place to raise a family it doesn’t offer much for the young professional.  At least not compared to Atlanta, which is where I live now.

Anyway, going back to see family is especially great when you have your worst NFL betting weekend in over 5 years.  If you read my blog you will see I got absolutely destroyed this past weekend.  I must have done something very shitty this past week to have a week of betting like I did. I could have salvaged just a bad day as oppose to an awful day had Arizona (one my two 1.5 unit bets) covered the 9.  Yet of course, the betting gods wanted to laugh at me, and give me another kick to the ribs as Zona won by 8 after they were up 18.  Anyway, it’s those awful betting days where all you can do is sit back and laugh.  So I decided not to watch the Sunday Night game, switch from beer to wine, make a good pasta dinner and put on the season finale of Curbed Your Enthusiasm (while of course checking score updates of the Eagles/Bears for fantasy purpose every 5 seconds…much to the chagrin of the gf).

This week there just isn’t much on waivers.  Rock Cartwright is probably the best out there, but by no means the same value as getting Forsett or Snelling last week. I wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving, as I hope that you find some time to spend it with your family.

Also, I want to say thanks to all our armed forces, especially the ones overseas during the holidays who won’t be able to be home with their spouses, parents or children.

GET THEM IN YOUR STARTING LINEUP:

Ryan Grant: Check up on his injury, but it doesn’t sound major.  The Packers will want to make a statement on thanksgiving day.

Justin Forsett:  They play the Rams who are awful against the run. Forsett is going to be a must start in any ppr league going forward.  In Non-ppr he is a matchup start.  Since the Seahawks play the Rams and their 28^th ranked rush D, I’d start him in all leagues.

Ricky Williams: This probably falls under the no-brainer list, but the Bills are the 2^nd worst in the NFL against the run.

TRY TO FIND A WAY TO FIT THEM IN YOUR LINEUP:

Any Player who is on the Pats or Saints (playing on Monday Night): This game is going to be a shootout.  Besides the obvious guys, you should play Pierre Thomas, Maroney, Shockey, Henderson, Meachem, Watson (if healthy) and maybe even Sammy Morris as there will be lots of touchdowns scored.

Felix Jones: The Raiders can cover the pass but are awful against the run.  Especially against quick scat type backs.  Jones is going to have a big Thanksgiving Day. So will Barber.

Jason Snelling:  I am counting on Turner being out, and even if Norwood plays I think Snelling gets the bulk of the work.  TB is the worst run D in the league.

David Garrard:  My QB sleeper of the week.  The 49ers have been disastrous against the pass since Clemens went down and have dropped to 30^th in the league against the pass.

WAIVER PICK-UPS FOR THE WEEK

Matt Leinart:  I just don’t think the Cardinals will risk a more severe injury to Warner.  They are 7-3 and almost guaranteed to win their division yet at the same time almost guaranteed that they won’t catch the Vikings or Saints.  Therefore, I think Leinart will get the start and play very well against a poor Titans pass defense coming off a Monday night game.

Fred Jackson:  Lynch went down for Buffalo and most likely won’t play this week.  Fred Jackson is great when he is the only back for the Bills.  Go check out his stats when Lynch was suspended if you forgot.  He got dropped in many leagues a couple weeks ago when he was doing nothing and Lynch was getting the bulk of the work.

Robert Meachem:  With Lance Moore out and Reggie Bush hurting Meachem gets a lot more attention from Brees.  In a game where the Pats are playing the Saints in a dome I’d get my hands on Meachem and play him with confidence.  Same with Henderson, but Meachem is available in more leagues.

WAIVER PICK-UPS FOR THE SEASON

Rock Cartwright:  Betts is done, and I just don’t see the Skins rushing Portis back onto the field as they are out of the playoff race.  It’s not that Cartwright will be so good.  But it never hurts to have a team’s starting back that gets the bulk of the work.

Jermichael Finley (TE-GB):  If you lost Cooley or Daniels and are using the waiver wire to grab a TE each week, just go get this guy and your problem is solved for the rest of the season…unless Finley get hurt again.  Rodgers loves throwing to Finley as his safety valve.

I think the current layout of College Football is a joke.  It just doesn’t make any sense.  It is the only major sport that doesn’t have a concrete method for awarding its champion.  Most people hate the BCS and crave a playoff.  Here is my playoff structure and proposal.

The regular season will be limited to 11 games and a conference championship game (if the conference so desires).  This will be to help limit the number of games because that is a concern of the NCAA.  Then the playoffs will be a 16 team tournament with the first round game at the higher seeds home field.  The 16 teams will be determined in this manner.  There are 11 conferences.  Each conference winner will be in the tournament.  The conference winner is determined by the conference.  A conference champ can be the regular season champ like the Big 10 or have a championship game like the SEC.  Either way one champion per conference goes into the field.  Then the remaining 5 wildcard or non-conference champion schools will be decided by a committee similar to how it is done in College Basketball.  The committee will also decide the seeds.  The Quarter-finals, semi-finals and finals will be at the various bowl sites (Ex. Rose, Orange, Fiesta etc).  Since there are 7 games some of those bowls will get 2 per year others will only get 1.  This will give small schools the chance to be Cinderella’s and pull a 16 v. 1 upset and teams like Boise or TCU the chance to shut everyone up and run a tough gauntlet of games as oppose to just winning one.  There can be a 2nd 16 team tournament set up for the remainder of the bowl eligible teams at various sites that previously hosted bowl games.  32 teams in the postseason is plenty as it accounts for approximately 1/3 of all NCAA Division 1 teams.

This is a big bye week as six teams have byes: Baltimore, Denver, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Detroit and Seattle. If you are sitting in your league at 6-0 or 5-1 this is the best time to work out a deal and trade with a 1-5 or 2-4 team who is desperate for a win, especially if they have players on a bye. Try to go and grab a Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Kevin Smith, Calvin Johnson, Houshmanzadeh and give up 2 mediocre players who are not on a bye. Go package Hightower with Mario Manningham and try to get Calvin Johnson. Go offer a Jamal Lewis and TO for Chris Johnson. These are the best times to do those kinds of deals. You might get a counter offer that is great anyway. If you feel confident in your team then look ahead and plan for the playoffs, even if it’s at the expense of having to play some weak players this week.

There are going to be very few QB problems as the best QBs on a bye are Flacco, Garrard and Hasselback, who are most likely not any team’s number one option. There are also very few top 12 TE’s on a bye (excluding Carlson) so the Week 7 waiver pickups will be mostly running backs and wide receivers as you would be very lucky if the bye week doesn’t force one of your starters out.

GET THEM IN YOUR STARTING LINEUP:

Jonathon Stewart: The Buffalo Bills have the worst run defense in the NFL. They are giving up 181.8 ypg on the ground, which is almost 10 more than the 2^nd worst rush defense Tampa Bay. Stewart is someone that is getting healthy as he was injured throughout training camp and should have a successful day pairing up with D. Williams.

Eli Manning: Arizona is giving up 265.2 ypg through the air. The Giants will come out angry so expect Eli to have a good day.

R. Grant: Most likely you don’t have other better options anyway, but Cleveland is the 3^rd worst rushing defense. Don’t worry that he didn’t score against the Lions because he will against the Browns.

TRY TO FIND A WAY TO FIT THEM IN YOUR LINEUP:

Larry Johnson: Don’t laugh. The Chiefs offense will only get better as the year goes on as Cassel gets more comfortable. San Diego has a weak rush defense and LJ ran for 83 yards and had another 3 catches for 12 yards last week on the road at Washington.

L. Maroney: It appears that Sammy Morris will not play this week. Fred Taylor is out for a few more weeks. Maroney ran 16 times for 123 yards and had 3 receptions for 10 yards in the snow last week. The Patriots play the Bucs who give up 171.7 ypg on the ground.

WAIVER PICK-UPS FOR THE WEEK

L. Maroney: Maroney was a number 1 draft pick in 2006 and is the #1 pickup in Week 6!!

J. Fargas: McFadden will not play this week. The Jets defense lost Kris Jenkins who made their entire defense work playing the nose in the 3-4. Without Jenkins except teams to be able to run on the Jets and Justin Fargas is the man in Oakland. He carried 23 times for 87 yards against the Eagles and will get the bulk of the work.

Michael Bush: In touchdown heavy leagues Michael Bush will still be the short yardage back in Oakland and should get 5-10 carries.

E. Bennett: Season stats: 19 catches for 257 yards on the season and Chicago plays the Bengals who are giving up the 3^rd most amount of passing yards. And they just lost their best pass rusher in Odom.

J. Knox: Season stats: 17 for 224 and 3 tds. Same as with Bennett, Chicago play the Bengals who give up a lot of passing yards. I’d play Knox in a non-ppr and Bennett in a ppr.

Benjarvis Green-Ellis (Rb-NE): If you are looking for a deep sleeper in deeper leagues this guy is it. He has been inactive most of the season but with both Taylor and Morris most likely out he will get some carries in a 70/30 split with Maroney. He had 275 and 5 tds last year when coming off the bench due to injuries. Maroney has never been known to stay healthy either.

WAIVER PICK-UPS FOR THE SEASON

Maroney: Fred Taylor is out for a while, and Sammy Morris is hurt and has always been injury prone. It is definitely worth the chance to pick up the Patriots number 1 back off waivers. The upside is huge.

Z. Miller: This guy is available in 2 of my leagues. Crazy. He has 21 catches for 354 yards and a Td, which for a TE puts him on pace for about 50 catches and 800 yards and a couple scores. If you have the space – go and get him. If your TE is a stud (Clark, Gonzo, Witten, Gates) and you can trade one of them to improve another part of your team do it as Miller will be more than adequate filling your TE spot for the rest of the season.

Green-Ellis: He has started before for the Pats when injuries mount at the RB spot.

M. Crabtree: They say he will start this week over Josh Morgan, which is shocking to me. But he has the talent to be effective later in the season as he gets accustom to the NFL speed. Remember SF plays almost all of their games in good weather so he could be a key contributor late in the season.

· My girlfriend got me an Xbox 360 for my 30^th birthday at the beginning of the month. I am a life long Bills fan. In my season the Bills are 5-1. Trent Edwards looks great, the coaching decisions are up to par…why oh why then are the Buffalo Bills so damn awful in real life when I can make them so good in a video game… sad.

· Chad Ocho Cinco (my favorite current NFL player) took a vicious helmet to helmet hit by Ray Lewis on the final drive of the game and eventual TD drive for Cinci. Ocho Cinco popped right up, knew it was dirty started going after Ray Lewis and then did the smart thing and picked up his helmet and walked back to the huddle. Smart move by Ocho Cinco as Lewis 15 yard penalty was a key component of that drive. Or maybe…Ray Lewis is the scariest man in the NFL and you would be certifiably insane to go after him. Either way…right decision.

· Steve Tasker is my favorite all time player.

· I live in Atlanta and am strongly considering going to hear Matthew Berry speak at Emory University this Thursday. If I go I might write about it in my blog (Covering the Spread) on FantasyFootballOasis.com.

· The Miami/NYJ game was very good and I believe both Sanchez and Henne will be excellent NFL QBs but neither will ever be in the same league as Matt Ryan who is the next Peyton Manning. Again, as a Bills fan, this is infuriating as all 3 teams in the AFC East now have solid QBs.

· I really like good home cooked Italian food and cookie cake for dessert. Why people don’t eat more cookie cake is beyond me… I mean you get the best of both worlds… cookie and cake. Unfortunately, it requires hours in the gym afterwards but its well worth it.

GET THEM IN YOUR STARTING LINEUP:

R. Mendenhall: I don’t care if Willie Parker plays or not. Play this guy at home against the Browns.

Matt Hasselback: He’s back!! 4 Touchdowns last week. The most underrated receiving core in the league with Housh, Burleson, Branch, and Carlson and he plays the Cardinals who can score and ONLY stop the run.

TRY TO FIND A WAY TO FIT THEM IN YOUR LINEUP:

Jeremy Maclin: Much more valuable in a non-ppr as he is a deep threat… Oakland is awful yet Asomugha is great. Asomugha will take Jackson out of the game so McNabb will find Maclin.

GB D: They play Detroit at home after a bye week and Calvin Johnson is injured. Even when Detroit puts up points they still have lots of turnovers and sacks.

WAIVER PICK-UPS FOR THE WEEK

J. Finley (TE-GB): If you’re a Dallas Clark, Jason Witten, or Vernon Davis owner this guy should be a good bye week replacement against the Lions. He had his coming out party Monday night against the Vikings for 6 for 128 and a TD and is available in most leagues.

Jax D: They play the Rams at Home. I am flirting with the idea of benching the Giants D against the Saints for the Jags.

Car D: They play the Bucs and that’s all you really need to know.

J. Maclin: See above. Good in non-ppr.

WAIVER PICK-UPS FOR THE SEASON

Miles Austin: He had 10 catches for 250 yards and 2 scores… everyone knows this. Don’t overthink it. Just pick him up. Roy Williams is not the answer in Dallas.

M. Wallace (Pitt): This guy was in this section last week too. 2 catches for 50+ yards and a TD last week. The clear #3 guy in Pitt.

Anthony Gonzalez: I think he will come back after the bye or very soon after that. If you have the roster space I would get him. I’d rather have him that Austin Collie or Pierre Garcon going forward.

I don’t like Favre and I want him to fail in Minnesota, but I was so unbelievably impressed Monday night. How could you not be? I think Favre is a media whore, and it wouldn’t bother me except that he acts like he is a real man’s man (I wear Wranglers). Favre is no better than TO or OchoCinco when it comes to drama and media attention, the only difference is TO and OchoCinco admit what they are. This is why I root for both of them but not Favre. Maybe I’m a hypocrite…I don’t know. But last night was truly an unbelievably impressive performance by Favre. Regardless, I am not buying into Minnesota. I think the running game and D are elite (especially that daunting run d), but at the end of the day Favre will not do what is necessary to take this team to a NFC championship. I think NO & NYG are better and I believe Philly is better as well. However, I can’t help but wonder what an amazing story it would be if he did win a championship with the Vikings. Even someone like me, who is rooting against him, would appreciate that.

GET THEM IN YOUR STARTING LINEUP:

F. Jackson & M. Lynch: They run at home against the Browns.

T. Hightower & B. Wells: They run against Houston at home, and I expect them to be fresh and explosive after a bye week.

R. Mendenhall: He plays Detroit in the Dome, and Willie Parker is banged up.

S. Smith (NYG): Until he falters he is a must play every week. Manning’s go to guy. Potential top 20 WR at the end of the season. However, if you own him and can trade him for good value do it now. The Giants schedule toughens up in a couple weeks and NY weather can be a concern late in the season.

TRY TO FIND A WAY TO FIT THEM IN YOUR LINEUP:

M. Sims-Walker: Seattle is a banged up team and Sims-Walker is the number 1 guy in Jax. Garrard clearly looks for him first, and the Jags D will give up points so Garrard will be forced to throw throughout the game. He is a top 25 WR going forward.

J. Harrison: 150 Total yards and 5 catches against the Bengals. Play him against a Bills D that has been getting destroyed against the run the last 2 weeks if Jamal is out again.

WAIVER PICK-UPS FOR THE WEEK

H. Miller: Targeted 27 times this year. 24 receptions for 181 yards and 2 tds. If you have Olsen, Shockey, or Gates he is a fine bye week replacement against the Lions.

WAIVER PICK-UPS FOR THE SEASON

R. Mendenhall: Willie Parker is a free agent this season and the team wants a reason to play Mendenhall. Parker has a hard time staying injury free so Mendenhall will be a decent play going forward with a huge upside any time Parker is out.

J. Fargas: He got the bulk of the work last week and McFadden is out for a couple weeks. Just because he plays on Oakland doesn’t mean he can’t be useful on your team…well…maybe it does…but he will be a starting running back over Bush.

M. Wallace (Pitt): #3 guy in Pitt but has 14 catches for 194 yards and can be useful in the deeper leagues as he is developing a rapport with Big Ben.

M. Massaquoi (Clev): Big day with Anderson at QB this past week. (8 for 148). Might take the #2 WR role in Cleveland, a team that will be down a lot this year and therefore throwing a lot.

L. Murphy (Oak): Only 11 catches on the year BUT he has 30 targets. Means Russell is at least looking for him even if he can’t get him the ball.

K. Britt (Tenn): 17 catches for 271 yards on the season, and of those 17 catches 14 have gone for 1^st downs. As Tenn gets eliminated from the playoff race which may happen this week when they play Indy and end up potentially 0-5 Britt will factor into the game plan much more.

D. Avery (St. L): Had 3 catches for 47 yards this past week. With L. Robinson out he is the Rams #1 WR and the Rams are another team that will be throwing all the time.