So what has happened to our wonderful alpha males during the off-season?

• Brett Favre pulled more unnecessary drama.
• Tom Brady decided this time he didn’t want to cheat on his current girlfriend/wife while she was pregnant.
• Peyton Manning did another commercial that wasn’t funny.
• Vince Young decided to fight at a strip club… at least he attacked a man.
• Big Ben showed his well… Big Ben… in the bathroom.
• Michael Vick had a gun blazin 30^th birthday bash.
• Matt Leinart winked at female fan and she fainted.
• Mark Sanchez did the same as Leinart except the fan was male and he fainted.
• Donavon McNabb took another verbal beating from an ex-WR (Jackson).
• And to make it all ok Tim Tebow said a prayer for all of us while he was crying.

So who is the Next Peyton, who is the 2010 version of Aaron Rodgers, who is the next Drew Brees.  There are 32 starting QBs and most leagues only start one QB.  Clearly a sleeper QB is not as important as a sleeper running back or receiver.  This is why you need to shoot for the stars with your sleeper QBs.  Go big or go home.  Guys who can jump to the top 5 at their position.  If you are in multiple QB leagues then it is understandable to take consistency.

Criteria:  What should you look for when evaluating sleeper QBs?

• Weather: Plays in a Dome, how many potentially tough weather condition games does that QB have
• Defense: Is the QBs own pass defense weak where you could see lots of shootouts involving quick strike drives.
• Threats: Do they have a running back who can catch the ball?  A TE who is a good red-zone target?  An Elite Receiver?

Last year at FFO I ranked Schaub as my #5 QB when he was generally being drafted around pick 10.  He was the boom or bust type due to his injury history.  But he played in warm weather, with a stud WR, with a weak defense in a division with a schedule that did not have a tremendous amount of elite passing defenses.  So without further ado…my 2010 Sleeper QBs:

MATT RYAN (ATL)

Atlanta Quarterback Matt Ryan

Matt Ryan will be a fantasy superstar this year.  He is this year’s Matt Schaub.  I would draft him over guys such as Flacco, Kolb, and even Rivers.  Here is why:  Matt Ryan has been nicknamed Matty Ice because he is chill, relaxed and handles pressure well…if you read comments from Ryan’s teammates, they say he is an extremely hard worker, and has earned their respect by playing through injuries for most of last season.  Last season Ryan got hurt in week 12 against the Bucs on the first series of the game.  He finished that game 2/3 for 15 yards.  He then missed weeks 13 and 14 and returned on the road against the best D in the NFL in Week 15 against the Jets and went 16/34 for 152 yards and a TD.  If you take away the Bucs game, the two missed games and the return on the road against Revis and the Jets Ryan’s stats for 12 games was 2749 yards passing and 21 scores.  If you calculate that out over 16 games it would be 3,665 yards and about 28 Tds.  This doesn’t take into account that Ryan played injured for most of 2009.  As a Rookie in 2008 Ryan threw for 3,440 yards and 16 Tds playing all 16 games.

Now let’s look at some miscellaneous factors.  First:  Ryan should get better going into year three of his NFL career.  The coaching staff has over doubled the playbook for the hurry up offense due to Ryan’s progress.  Second, Ryan has a touchdown scoring TE in Gonzalez, a great yardage and reception receiver in Roddy White, a solid power running back in Turner and scat back that everyone seems to forget in Jerious Norwood.  Tons of weapons!!  Third, he plays in a dome, and after the bye week the Falcons have two games with potential weather issues which are November 11^th @ Baltimore and December 19^th against Seattle.  With the injuries to the Ravens secondary and Seattle’s weak secondary in general unless the weather is brutal Ryan’s stats will be fine in those games.  Therefore, you won’t have many weeks to worry about sitting Ryan.  Fourth, the Falcons defense if fairly weak as they were 28^th against the pass and 21^st overall.  Expect lots of shootouts in the dome.

I am projecting a full season for Ryan and estimating (on the conservative side) a slight improvement to his 2009 pro-rated numbers and projecting 3900 yards passing 30 tds, 15 Ints, 50 yards rushing.  If you miss out on a top QB I’d rather have Ryan in Round 6-8 than Manning, Brady, Schaub or Rivers in Round 2-4.

* I like Matt Stafford as a sleeper in this scoring system.

** I like Jay Cutler in any league that doesn’t penalize for turnovers.

DAVID GARRARD (JAX)

Jacksonville Quarterback David Garrard

In league where passing TD’s are worth 4 points, rushing tds are worth 6 points, every 25 yards passing is 1 point, and every 10 yards rushing is a point, David Garrard only scored about 38 points less than Tom Brady in 2009.  That is about 2 points per week.  David Garrard is currently being draft somewhere between the 20^th QB taken and the 25^th QB taken.  This makes absolutely no sense to me.  Not in a league that awards QB’s only 4 points per TD.  Garrard is the best dual threat in the league from a fantasy perspective (Yes better than Vince Young) and should be a borderline top 10 player in this scoring system.  And the best part is you can him get late…very late.  This allows you all sorts of flexibility in stacking your roster at other positions.

Don’t believe me?  Go look at Garrard’s stats over the last two years.  2009:  3,597 yards passing 15 TD’s and 10 Ints, 323 yards rushing and 2 Tds.  2008:  3,620 yards passing 16 TD’s, 13 Ints and 322 yards rushing and 2 Tds.  So….if you’ve been reading this you should immediately start yelling…what the F..K?  Didn’t you say you draft sleeper QBs for upside.  Well. Yes I did.  But that doesn’t mean you ignore value and he has some upside with MJD and MSW.  In 2007, he threw for 18 touchdowns in 12 games and rushed for another.  Pro-rate that out to a full season and you have 24 passing Tds.  Want to compare him to Vince Young…well Young threw for only 1879 yards and 10 Tds over with 281 yards rushing and 2 Tds over 10 games.  And Young is being drafted as a borderline top 15 QB in most drafts.

Garrard finished 16^th in passing yards in 2009 and 10^th in 2008.  Not too bad when he is basically guaranteed to be top 3 (if not first) in rushing points for quarterbacks.  Garrard plays in a division with no real solid pass defense.  Indy ranked 14^th in yards passing per game, Houston 18^th, and Tennessee 31^st.  Jacksonville ranked 27^th which means the potential exists for numerous shootouts by the Jags.  Also, the only game with any weather implication is November 28^th @ NYG.

Projection:  3600 passing, 18 Tds, 12 Int, 325 yards rushing 3 Tds.

**Also like Jason Campbell as a sleeper in this scoring system

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