An oft held axiom revered in fantasy football is that wide receivers start to peak in their 3rd season. Let’s crunch the numbers to see what they reveal. First we’ll look at WR’s in their 3rd season in 2009, and then WR’s in their 2nd season in 2009 to see who may be poised for a breakout in 2010. For purposes of comparison we’ll rank the players by number of receptions.
WR’s in their 3rd season
Steve Smith (NYG) – 107 rec, 1220 yds, 7 TD’s
Sidney Rice – 83 rec, 1312 yds, 8 TD’s
Calvin Johnson – 67 rec, 984 yds, 5 TD’s
Mike Sims-Walker – 63 rec, 869 yds, 7 TD’s
Steve Breaston – 55 rec, 712 yds, 3 TD’s
Dwayne Bowe – 47 rec, 589 yds, 3 TD’s
Robert Meachum – 45 rec, 722 yds, 9 TD’s
Ted Ginn Jr – 38 rec, 454 yds, 1 TD
James Jones – 32 rec, 440 yds, 5 TD’s
Jacoby Jones – 27 rec, 437 yds, 6 TD’s
Devin Aromashodu – 24 rec, 298 yds 4 TD’s
WR’s in their 2nd season
Davone Bess – 76 rec, 758 yds, 2 TD’s
DeSean Jackson – 63 rec, 1167 yds, 9 TD’s
Mario Manningham – 57 rec, 822 yds, 5 TD’s
Earl Bennett – 54 rec, 717 yds, 2 TD’s
Josh Morgan – 52 rec, 527 yds, 3 TD’s
Andre Caldwell – 51 rec, 432 yds, 3 TD’s
Donnie Avery – 47 rec, 589 yds, 5 TD’s
Pierre Garcon – 47 rec, 765 yds, 4 TD’s
Eddie Royal – 37 rec, 345 yds
Chaz Schilens – 29 rec, 365 yds, 2 TD’s
Keenan Burton – 25 rec, 253 yds
Malcolm Kelly – 25 rec, 347 yds
Devin Thomas – 25 rec, 325 yds, 3 TD’s
Jordy Nelson – 22 rec, 320 yds, 2 TD’s
Early Doucet – 17 rec, 214 yds, 1 TD
David Clowney – 14 rec, 191 yds, 1 TD
Harry Douglas – injured
As you can see, some of the 2nd year WR’s are already putting up gaudy numbers, so there’s certainly lots of promise there for the 2010 season. That said, one needs to look at team rosters to see who stands the best chance of stepping up – this of course will be affected by off-season player movement and the 2010 NFL draft (and being omniscient wouldn’t hurt either!).
There are also some in their second season who showed little of note this year including Todd Watkins, Danny Woodhead, Lavelle Hawkins, Kenny Moore, Eric Weems, Steve Johnson, James Hardy, Jordan Kent, John Standeford, Limas Sweed, Justin Harper, Darius Reynaud and Jerome Simpson. Despite their limited production, some of these could see an expanded role in 2010.


