Treat’s Take: Championship Week 16 Start/Sit

The Titans pass D is actually the 7th best in the league over the last 5 weeks. Their horrible start to the season makes their rankings deceptive. All of that being said, Rivers just finds Gates and VJax. Tomlinson has 11 fantasy points or more in 7 of the last 8 games. Expect 10-15 fantasy points again.

Vince Young has been putting up low end startable numbers most weeks scoring 12 or more every week and has 77 fantasy points in his last 4. Gage was his favorite target before he got injured. Last week Gage score 2 TDs. You have to donwgrade Britt and bring Gage back into flex consideration.

Brohm is set to start this week and that makes it hard to recommend any Bills on the road even against a soft defense. This is fantasy championship week here.

Matt Ryan
Michael Turner (inj)
Jason Snelling
Jerious Norwood
Roddy White
Michael Jenkins
Tony Gonzalez

The Bills have the 2nd best pass defense behind the Jets. White might get the targets, but like last week when he only caught 4 of his 10 targets and Gonzalez only caught 3 of his 10 against the Jets… fantasy points will be hard to come by. Ryan looks to Gonzo in the endzone and he’s probably your best TE anyway.

Matt Cassel
Jamaal Charles
Kolby Smith
Dwayne Bowe
Chris Chambers
Bobby Wade
Lance Long
Mark Bradley

Charles has been a dual threat and starting to pull a KC tradition. When Holmes went out for the season, LJ stepped in and rocked it. Now that LJ has moved on, Charles has stepped in and fantasy owners are loving it. Bowe actually had twice the looks that Chambers did, Chambers just scored and made the most of them. Bowe will have Leon Hall on him this weak and is more of a flex play.

Carson Palmer
Cedric Benson
Chad OchoCinco
Laveranues Coles
Andre Caldwell

Even before Harrison ran all over the Chiefs, the Chiefs were letting up a lot of fantasy points to RBs. This is one of those weeks, where having drafted Cedric Benson might have just won you a fantasy championship. Palmer has had a ton of bad weeks in a row until last week. He won’t need to pass much this week, so should still be benched. Ocho will get his.

JaMarcus Russell
Darren McFadden
Michael Bush
Justin Fargas (inj)
Darrius Heyward-Bey (inj)
Chaz Schilens
Louis Murphy
Johnny Lee Higgins
Zach Miller

With Fargas likely out, Bush will be the lead back again and McFadden will see some more action. This is a nice matchup and both backs have nice upside if Fargas doesn’t go. Bush is a safe flex play, McFadden is a high risk/high reward flex play.

A lot of people will be riding the Harrison hype. There are some interesting things at play here. This week Anderson will be in. This week Oakland will aim to stop the run, most likely by stackgin the box. The Browns don’t have a passing game, so Harrison has nice upside, but unless he has another 30+ carry game, his game will be good, not ridiculous.

Branch had 10 targets last week but just 29 yards. The Seattle WRs have just 1 TD in the last 5 games. They aren’t worth looking at. Jones had 17 touches to Forsett’s 12 last week. That is 3 straight weeks (since JJ’s return) that JJ has gotten the majority of touches. Keep both benched.

Seattle is horrible against the pass. The Packers are a passing team. Even James Jones who is averaging about 5 targets a game over the last 6 games deserves very low end flex consideration.

Flacco came back to life last week and in perfect timing. Neither of these teams are stopping the pass and the Ravens need this game to keep the 7-7 crowd (including the Steelers) off their back. Mason is as solid as they come. He is PPR gold and has scored in 3 of the last 4.

Big Ben probably won’t have 500 yards again, but he should still have a good game against a surprisingly soft Ravens pass defense. Wallace may have been the hero last week, but he is only getting 2-4 looks a game. He has very high upside, but the risk is too great.

Matt Schuab
Arian Foster
Ryan Moats
Chris Brown
Andre Johnson
Kevin Walter
Jacoby Jones

Well, it’s official. Schaub and AJ are the only two Texans worth anything in fantasy leagues and Houston RBs can’t hold onto the ball.

Chad Henne
Ricky Williams
Ronnie Brown (inj)
Davone Bess
Ted Ginn
Greg Camarillo
Brian Hartline

Ricky continues to put up nice games and should be in all lineups. Henne has two 300 yard games in the last 3 weeks but he also has 5 picks and just 3 TDs. In the last two games, the ball has been split between the WRs so much that none are startable, even against Houston.

If Deangelo Williams is out, JStew should be in all lineups. That pretty much goes for any matchup. Steve Smith will find a way to get his. No other Panther is worth a Championship game start. The Giants secondary (and entire defense) is very very very poor. Expect nice days from JStew and Smith

The Panthers have a highly ranked Pass D which might spoil the nice games Eli has put together. Him and his WRs are a tad riskier this week. As always Smith is the safest. Bradshaw scored twice last week but got banged up again and didn’t practice Wednesday. Jacobs gets a slight bump if Bradshaw sits.

Garrard had a nice game last week but this week he goes into NE where the Pats are undefeated. They may play from behind which could help him a bit, not enough for a start. Sims-Walker, however, could benefit from that.

Tom Brady
Laurance Maroney
Kevin Faulk
Benjarvis Green-Ellis
Sammy Morris
Fred Taylor (inj)
Randy Moss
Wes Welker
Julian Edelman

Maroney is becoming a workhorse for the Pats. Every time a Pats RB has had 20+ touches this year, they have topped 10 fantasy points. Expect that and a bit more from Maroney this week despite the fact the Jags are 6th against RBs allowing 7 rushing TDs this year and only 94 rushing yards a game. The Pats might get up and run the ball to run the clock.

Josh Freeman
Cadillac Williams
Ernest Graham
Derrick Ward
Michael Clayton
Sammie Stroughter
Antonio Bryant
Kellen Winslow Jr.

Caddy and Ward each scored receiving TDs last week. You can’t count on those out of RBs. Much adu was made about Antonio Bryant’s late season fantasy heroics last week. We weren’t buiuying it, we gave him 1 star and he dropped an awesome 3 catches for 35 yards on fantasy owners. Even with the Bucs sure to be behind all game, he’s just not safe in such a big fantasy week. Winslow gets the most targets, catches, and has the best fantasy potential of this team.

Even though Payton says they will not rest players yet, you have to imagine that dinged up players like Bush will sit. The return of Moore splits up the WR potential even more. Colston and Brees are still safe bets, Henderson and Meachem are OK flex plays this week given that the Saints don’t run the ball much and the Bucs have allowed the 4th most WR touchdowns this year.

Kyle Boller (inj)
Keith Null
Steven Jackson
Brandon Gibson
Donnie Avery
Danny Amendola

Danny scored his 1st NFL TD last week, but this is a Rams team that just doesn’t score much. The passing game, especially with Null, doesn’t get many yards. Jackson is the only fantasy starter.

Beanie made the most of his carries last week. He had 19 touches and should see a similar amount this week with Arizona likely to get ahead. Plug him in to all lineups.

Mathew Stafford (inj)
Drew Stanton
Maurice Morris
Calvin Johnson (inj)
Bryant Johnson
Brandon Pettigrew
Casey Fitzsimmons

Since Stafford last went out, CJ2 has 18 targets but just 72 total yards. That is piss poor for 2 games. He has upside, but he’s a flex play at best. Who would have thought when you drafted him that he would be being benched in most fantasy league playoffs.

Against a very weak defense, we will see the 49ers skill players put up serviceable fantasy numbers. Morgan’s week 15 might be more of a fluke, but Crabby and VD should step up here. Gore hit 100 yards on just 17 carries last week and should find his way to 100 again this week.

With Bucky out, Moreno only managed to gain 81 total yards on 26 touches. He doesn’t even average 4 yards per carry and still hasn’t broken a run over 20 yards. The only thing he has going for him in fantasy leagues is that he is the main back and gets a lot of touches. This makes him safe in flex spots.

Bucky looks like he will play making Moreno a less safe play.

Royal has been ruled out for this week.

Donovan McNabb
Michael Vick
Brian Westbrook (inj)
LeSean McCoy
Leonard Weaver
Jeremy Maclin (inj)
Desean Jackson
Jason Avant
Brent Celek

With Weaver and McCoy now splitting carries, neither are worth starting. Maclin is likely due back this week, but Jackson remains the only startable WR for Philly right now. He has too much potential to ever bench.

With Westy taking a few snaps as well, no Eagle RB should be started this week.

Thomas Jones was held down last week. He should get back on track this week. He has been solid all year and the sheer number of touches he gets should lead him to a solid fantasy day. Edwards was targeted early and often last week. Should the Jets fall behind, he could be in for a ncie day.

Peyton Manning
Joseph Addai
Donald Brown (inj)
Reggie Wayne
Austin Collie
Pierre Garcon (inj)
Dallas Clark

Clark is putting up top WR numbers this year. The Colts aren’t sitting their players, at least not yet. Maybe sometime in this game they will. Revis will be on Wayne making him a tough start. It’s doubtful you have a better option though. Addai has a very tough matchup and given it’s no guarantee he plays the whole game, he’s a weak flex play. As for Manning, even 2 quarters of Manning is better than a full game from some QBs.

Garcon will not play this week opening up more targets for the other WRs.

Barber went wild last week. It’s been awhile since we saw Barber have a 2 TD day. He used to be all about the TDs. This week the ‘Boys face a very good defense. Keep Romo and Austin going, they are every week must starts.

The Washington passing game has one fantasy relevant player: Fred Davis. He’s Campbell’s go to. Expect him to be involved in this NFC East matchup. Ganther is putting up OK fantasy points with a small amount of touches. He is the lead back and a safe flex play.

The Vikings have had a couple rough weeks recently and now have a Coach/QB issue. The Vikings might come out swinging just to get the media to stop talking about it. The cure for most NFL arguments is winning. The Bears got throttled by this Vikings team in week 12. The recent poor games by Favre and the passing game give pause to starting Favre, Harvin, Rice, and Shiancoe, but all of them had great fantasy days against the Bears 4 weeks ago.

Jay Cutler
Matt Forte
Devin Hester (inj)
Johnny Knox
Earl Bennett
Devin Aromashodu
Greg Olsen

Cutler’s last good fantasy game was week 9. He has 4 TDs and 14 INTs in the last 6 games. Forte has had a couple poor games in a row and faces a tough run defense this week. Basically, sit your Bears.