The AFC East reaped the benefits of a historically weak schedule in 2008, as two teams boasted 11 win seasons and two others needed late-season collapses to keep them from also notching double-digit victories. Quarterback drama dominated the AFC East landscape last year as Brett Favre’s debut in New York met with mixed results, Chad Pennington’s debut in Miami met with great success, and we all got to meet an unknown quantity named Matt Cassel and the successful New England system sans Tom Brady. With three teams in playoff contention until the final week of the season and another having signed high-profile Wide Receiver Terrell Owens this off-season to keep up in the division, the AFC East looks to be one of the closest and most competitive divisions in football heading into 2009.
MIAMI DOLPHINS:
The ‘Fins went 11 – 5 in 2008 despite getting off to a lackluster 2 – 4 start. Pennington’s leadership and poise were on full display as he effectively turned middling talents at wide receiver and questionable durability at running back into a balanced and cohesive offensive attack that ranked top-10 in passing (227 yards per game) and top-11 in rushing (118 yards per game). This, combined with a surprisingly effective defense (9th in points given up at 19.8 per game) and a five game win streak to end the regular season, was enough to launch the Dolphins into the playoffs and complete a dynamic turnaround of a Miami organization that was barely one season removed from an embarrassing 1 – 15 campaign. Despite their loss to the Baltimore Ravens in the Wild Card round of the playoffs and the much improved difficultly of their 2009 schedule, the Dolphins still have a capable combination of solid, young talent and veteran leadership on both sides of the ball, which should help them remain competitive both within the division and the conference.
Quarterbacks:
Miami made the decision to sign Chad Pennington last off-season when their division rival New York Jets released him after trading for legendary strong-arm quarterback Brett Favre. The decision couldn’t have been more favorable for Miami: Pennington’s weak-armed but accurate attack brought stability to the organization and helped him post a remarkable 67.4 completion percentage while throwing for 3653 yards and 19 touchdowns with only 7 interceptions. While the elder Pennington likely isn’t the quarterback of the future in Miami (his contract is up at the end of the year), he’ll remain a solid QB2 in redraft leagues for as long as Miami is competitive, and back-up quarterback Chad Henne and second round draft pick Pat White will be relegated to duking it out over who inherits the throne in 2010.
Running Backs:
Coming off of an ACL tear that he suffered midway through the 2007 season, expectations for Ronnie Brown were all over the map entering 2008. Despite sharing a heavy portion of the workload with backfield mate Ricky Williams, Brown still managed to post 1170 total yards (916 rushing, 254 receiving) and score 10 touchdowns. Now over a year and a half removed from ACL surgery, Brown should be healthy and explosive enough to warrant an increase in touches in 2009. Williams, conversely, will probably see his role decline and will be hard-pressed to improve upon the 878 total yards (659 rushing, 219 receiving) and 5 total touchdowns (4 rushing, 1 receiving) that he garnered last year. Despite that, Williams still remains an effective and viable handcuff to all owners who draft Brown as a value RB2 this year.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends:
Miami’s go-to receiver was a closely grouped rotation of flavor-of-the-month candidates, with Greg Camrillo posting 55 catches for 613 yards and 3 touchdowns before being shelved in week 12 with a knee injury, Devon Bess picking up the slack down the stretch en route to 54 catches, 554 yards, and a solo score, and Tedd Ginn providing a consistent season-long sophomore campaign in which he lead the team in both receptions (56) and yardage (790). Also contributing was Pennington’s favorite red-zone target, tight end Anthony Fasano, who compiled solid TE1/TE2 numbers last year with 34 catches, 454 yards, and a team-leading 7 touchdowns. While Fasano should maintain his value as long as Pennington stays the starter and Ginn remains a talented WR3 prospect regardless, both Camarillo and Bess will likely represent nothing more than late-round gambles and dynasty stashes.
New England Patriots:
Despite having resident superstar and league-leading quarterback Tom Brady knocked out of football on the very first game of the season, New England continued to do what they do best: (no, not cheat) succeed. Unheralded fill-in Matt Cassel stepped admirably into the enormous shoes that Brady left behind and the Patriot system continued humming effectively and efficiently along, ranking 8th in points scored (25.6 a game) and 5th in yards gained (a remarkable 365 a game). Despite winning their last 4 games of the season and finishing a valiant effort with an 11 – 5 overall record, the Pats were hedged from the playoffs in the final week of the season by their in-division rival Miami Dolphins.
Quarterbacks:
With Matt Cassel and his 3693 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, and 63.4 completion percentage now slinging the rock in Kansas City via trade, New England is banking on a healthy return to former glory for their media darling Tom Brady. In Brady’s last full season of play, he broke NFL records and every team’s heart in football except the New York Giants as he posted over 4800 yards, 50 touchdowns, and the only 16 – 0 regular season the league has ever seen. One reconstructive knee surgery, a couple of infections, and one new Offensive Coordinator later, and Brady is still an elite fantasy QB1 who will be one of the first quarterbacks taken in every fantasy draft this year. Because after all, any system that allows Matt Cassel to blossom into a star is worth banking on with a talent like Brady at the helm.
Running Backs:
Lost in the hype of the highly touted, high-fly New England passing game was the fact that the Patriots ranked an impressive 6th in rushing last year at 142 yards per game. With constant underachiever Laurence Maroney consistently banged up however, the Patriots went out and signed productive veteran Fred Taylor to help distribute some of the carries in 2009. Taylor and Maroney will likely split a lion’s share of the yardage between them, while also relinquishing short-yardage duties to Sammy Morris (who was productive in his own right last year, posting a team-high 727 yards and 7 touchdowns) and passing-down duties to Kevin Faulk (who led all New England running backs with 56 catches, 486 receiving yards and 3 receiving scores). This convoluted mess is almost guaranteed to be productive at the NFL level, but for fantasy purposes, no one here merits anything more than a mid- to late-round gamble with a prayer that an injury or two ends up thinning the herd.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends:
Randy Moss and Wes Welker form one of the most formidable and knowledgeable receiving duos in the league. Welker, in fact, didn’t miss a beat while transitioning to new quarterback Matt Cassel last year, and posted his second straight 110 plus reception campaign in a row. His 111 catches, 1165 yards, and 3 scores make him an invaluable PPR commodity and a reliable WR2 in all scoring formats. Moss, who was affected much more dramatically by the QB switch, posted only 69 catches for 1008 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2008 after posting career numbers in 2007 with Brady. While expecting any kind of return to record-breaking prominence may be overreaching a bit, Moss definitely has the potential to increase his already stellar output and maintain his status as one of the fantasy elite at the wide receiver position. Also in the mix for touches will be new addition Joey Galloway, who should retain late redraft value as a situational deep threat, and tight end Ben Watson, who still has the talent and ability to maintain TE2 status if he stays healthy.
New York Jets:
The circus that surrounded the New York Jets all season long in 2008 focused on one person and one person only: Brett Favre. The high-profile legend and his nasty split with Green Bay led to a trade that brought him to the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets, and the very bright lights of the very big city. It also led to the departure of long-time Jet vet Chad Pennington, a 9 – 7 record which included a 1 – 4 collapse down the stretch (attributable to Favre’s injured bicep), and the firing of Head Coach Eric Mangini. New Head Coach and ex-Baltimore Defensive Coordinator Rex Ryan now inherits a team that was top-10 in points scored (25.3 a game), top-10 in rushing (125 yards a game), and top-10 against the run (allowing only 94 yards per game), albeit without the hall of fame Favre and the attention and drama that enveloped him.
Quarterbacks:
With Favre’s 3472 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 65.7 completion percentage now retired (and probably soon un-retired), the keys to the New York kingdom now pass squarely into the hands of young first round pick and USC alum Mark Sanchez. Whether he’ll be allowed to take the driver’s seat immediately or learn behind former back-up Kellen Clemens for a year has still yet to be decided. Whatever the case may be, a drop in passing proficiency and statistics can be expected in 2009, and neither potential Jets’ starter warrants anything more than low-end QB2 consideration. Sanchez, however, still retains significant long-term dynasty potential.
Running Backs:
Thomas Jones proved to be an effective workhorse for the Jets in 2008, compiling 1519 total yards (1312 rushing, 207 receiving) and 15 total touchdowns (13 rushing, 2 receiving) making him a top-5 fantasy back last year. The Jets promptly rewarded Jones by balking at his requests for a contract extension and then trading up in the second round of the NFL Draft to secure a big, bruising back out of Iowa named Shonne Greene. With newly drafted Greene and home-run hitting change-of-pace back Leon Washington, who himself impressed last year with 47 catches, 803 total yards (448 rushing, 355 receiving), 8 total scores (6 rushing, 2 receiving), and an astounding 5.9 yards per carry average, the Jets now have an abundance of riches at the running back position. This has actually led to speculation that Jones might be on the trading block this summer. Until a trade happens, however, Jones remains a solid RB2 play, Washington is stuck as a valuable hand-cuff with individual PPR value, and Greene only warrants consideration in dynasty and TD-heavy leagues.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends:
The passing offense of the New York Jets will center around two young, developing players: wide receiver Jericho Cotchery and tight end Dustin Keller. Cotchery was atop many fantasy sleeper lists last year, but the speedster failed to live up to the Favre-era billing, going for only 71 catches, 858 yards, and 5 touchdowns despite being the clear number one receiver on the team. While he should see an uptick in targets now that Laveranues Coles is a Cincinnati Bengal, there’s still too much risk and not enough proven production to warrant selecting Cotchery as anything more than a borderline WR2/WR3 prospect in 2009. Keller however, is a TE2 who has the potential to produce TE1 numbers in his sophomore campaign. After finishing his rookie season with 48 catches, 535 yards, and 3 touchdowns, Keller will likely have the opportunity to build on that foundation by benefiting both from the change to a weaker-armed quarterback and the extremely shallow talent pool of the New York receiving corps. The Jets have also flirted with the idea of potentially signing a free agent veteran like perpetual headache Plaxico Burress to help fill their pass-catching void, but no substantial results or progress has been made on that front.
Buffalo Bills:
The Bills experienced a tale of two seasons last year, as they started out of the gates red-hot, winning their first four games and going 5 – 1 before steadily spiraling out of control. One of only a select few franchises in the NFL to hold the distinction of being held winless in division play, Buffalo’s 0 – 6 record in the AFC East proved to be an insurmountable obstacle to success. They finished the season on a 1 – 4 skid which included a spectacularly embarrassing shut-out finale loss to the Patriots in the final week of the season. With a bottom-10 offense in both points (21 per game) and yards (305 per game), the Bills sought offensive salvation from a extremely risky and unlikely source: Terrell Owens. Buffalo signed Owens only days after he was released from the Dallas Cowboys hoping to keep pace with a relentless and improving division.
Quarterback:
Trent Edwards has been a mediocre fantasy prospect for the first two seasons of his career in Buffalo, and in 2008, he managed to amass only 2699 passing yards and 11 touchdowns despite coughing up 10 interceptions in 14 games. While he’s accurate (65.5 percent completion rate) and still developing, he’s also nothing more than a low-upside QB2 even with the recent addition of a playmaking wide receiver to his repertoire.
Running Backs:
Marshawn Lynch has been a model of mistake-prone and stupidity-induced self-hindrance since he entered the league in 2007. His most recent off-field exploit has cost him three games of the 2009 season by way of league suspension (although he’s currently appealing it). It is unlikely, therefore, to expect Lynch to be able to repeat the 1336 total yards (1036 rushing, 300 receiving) and 9 touchdowns (8 rushing, 1 receiving) that it took him 15 games to amass in 2008. Picking up the early-season slack will be capable back-up Fred Jackson who contributed 888 total yards (571 rushing, 317 receiving) and 3 touchdowns to the Buffalo cause last year, and newly inked ex-Colt Dominic Rhodes. Jackson should be an attractive alternative early in the season and could actually earn more of a timeshare with Lynch if he performs admirably enough in his temporary starting gig. Lynch, however, should see his value drop fairly significantly in all Redraft leagues.
Wide Receivers:
The spotlight in Buffalo is dead-set on newly acquired big-name wide receiver Terrell Owens as he enters this cold, quaint town for the 2009 season. After hauling in 69 balls for 1052 yards and 10 touchdowns last year in the high-octane Dallas offense, the expectations are sky-high for Owens at his new home. If his tendency to drop passes, undermine weak leadership, and demand placation isn’t negated by the fact that he’s on a one year contract, then this marriage could well result in disappointment. For while the potential is there, the possibility of a weak-armed quarterback throwing in blizzard-like conditions late into the season leaves Owens squarely in the WR2 camp for the time being. In fact, his new teammate Lee Evans, a blazing fast speedster whom Edwards can’t hit deep, could attest to the frustrating limitations that the Buffalo weather and offensive situation present. Evans was limited to just 63 catches, 1017 yards, and 3 touchdowns last year despite being the Bills’ only truly talented pass-catching option. With Owens in town to gobble up possession receptions (and perhaps coverage as well), Evans is now a very fast, very talented, very underwhelming fantasy WR3 option.
